Bitcoin’s Cautious Green Start to 2026

The Breakdown

Blockworks

Investing, Business

4.8 • 806 Ratings

🗓️ 7 January 2026

⏱️ 10 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Bitcoin is off to a quietly strong start to the year, notching its longest green streak in months and pushing back toward key resistance levels, but conviction remains conditional as traders debate whether this is the start of a new leg higher or just another trap. Today’s episode looks at the mix of narratives behind the move, from options market shifts and ETF inflows to geopolitical uncertainty and simple new-year portfolio resets. It also digs into Coinbase’s renewed push to become an everything financial app, the intensifying rivalry with Robinhood, Washington’s increasingly uncertain path toward crypto market structure legislation, China’s first hard regulatory signal of the year, and why physical security risks are becoming a more central part of the crypto conversation. Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast: https://pod.link/1438693620 Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheBreakdownBW Subscribe to the newsletter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thebreakdown⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join the discussion: https://discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8 Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownBW

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.
0:09.3	It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world.
0:18.4	What's going on, guys? It is Tuesday, January 6th, and today we are talking about Bitcoin kind of getting off to an okay start this year. Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying the breakdown, please go subscribe to it, give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation, come join us on the Breakers Discord. You can find a link in the show notes or go to bit.ly slash breakdown pod.
0:41.8	Well, Bitcoin's hot start to 2026 continued on Monday with another green day.
0:46.0	The price is now up more than 7% to begin the year with five green days in a row,
0:47.9	which is its longest streak since October.
0:52.0	There was a slight retracement overnight, but Bitcoin still hit a three-week high of $94,000 on Monday.
0:53.9	Analyst Axel Adler Jr. argued in a
0:56.1	research note that Bitcoin is shifting back to risk-on mode. He wrote,
1:00.0	Structural indicators are signaling a synchronized transition from a phase of weakness into a phase of strength.
1:05.4	The key question is whether price can establish itself above the upper channel boundary to continue
1:09.3	the move. Analyst Plan C tweeted,
1:12.4	Bitcoin is no longer in a downtrend. There has been a fundamental shift.
1:15.9	We've seen a month and a half of Sideways price action where Bitcoin is in a clear channel,
1:19.7	and most likely it's an accumulation channel. The longer we stay in this
1:23.2	sideways channel, the more likely the bottom is in. Once we break through 94,500, we should see a pretty
1:28.9	swift move to challenge the all-important 100,000. Now, not everyone is convinced, with trader Peter
1:34.3	DeC Carlo writing, here comes the Bitcoin trap I've been waiting for. I've been expecting a squeeze
1:38.8	into the 100k range for a month now, not as the bottom, but as a way to trap-laid bulls before
1:43.4	a potential flush towards 70K. I hope I'm wrong, but I bottom, but as a way to trap-plate bulls before a potential flush
1:44.1	towards 70K. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm treating this as a bounce, not a new bull leg.
1:50.1	Now, for many, the more interesting discussion is what's driving the move. Many are seeing
	...

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