In December 2024, the laser-eyed crypto enthusiasts were taking a victory lap.

Bitcoin had just crossed the $100,000 milestone, and even the skeptics at F.T. Alphaville were forced into a somewhat brittle public apology for their years of doubt.

At that moment, the narrative was that crypto had finally been freed from its regulatory shackles.

Wall Street was finally in the game, and those who were once nervous about the technology

could now invest through a convenience suite of ETFs. The institutional-grade liquidity this

was supposed to bring was meant to smooth out the volatility,

finally etching the digital gold pieces into the granite of the global financial system.

Over the years, I've learned that whenever someone tells you that a new era of stability has arrived,

it's usually a good time to start looking

for the nearest exit.

Fast forward to today and digital gold has behaved a lot less like actual gold and more

like a high beta tech stock on a very bad day.

Bitcoin is currently trading down around 23% year to date, and it has shed about 45% of its

value since its October peak.

To put the severity of this move into perspective, the 13% plunge that we saw on February

5th was the largest one-day drop in Bitcoin since the collapse of FTX back in 2022.

One of the most fascinating aspects of Bitcoin is its hydra-headed narrative.

Whenever one claim of its utility dies, three more sprout in its place.

Over the years, we've been told that it's an alternative currency,

a ticket to life-changing wealth, an inflation hedge, and a digital gold that would rally during

geopolitical shocks. Yet while actual gold and silver hit records this year, Bitcoin is languished.

Stocks are up and geopolitical risk has certainly increased.

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