Binance Needs A Friend in The European Union

The Breakdown

Blockworks

Investing, Business

4.8 • 806 Ratings

🗓️ 29 June 2026

⏱️ 30 minutes

🔗️ Recording | Apple Podcasts | RSS

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Summary

Binance is out of the EU as of July 1 after its MICA license application in Greece was rejected. David runs through who is and isn't licensed under MICA, checks Blockworks Research for Binance's actual spot market share (~33%), and looks at whether the outflow data suggests real damage. Then: the US government is now effectively approving AI model releases — Anthropic's Mythos 5 is live for a whitelist of 100+ orgs, Fable 5 still blocked, and OpenAI just did the same thing with GPT-V.Sol. David draws the parallel to how regulation changed crypto. Finally: Meta is building a prediction market app called Arena, with Zuck reportedly pursuing partnerships with Polymarket and Kaoshi. David checks Polymarket and Kaoshi's open interest data and asks whether Meta is just late to the party again. TIMESTAMPS: [To be filled in] FOLLOW THE SHOW › David — https://x.com/dcanellis › The Breakdown — https://x.com/TheBreakdownBW › The Breakdown Newsletter — https://blockworks.com/newsletter/the-breakdown DISCLAIMER As always, remember this podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice.

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome back to the breakdown, everybody. I'm your host, David Kinnis, as always.
0:03.8	This morning, we're looking at a few quick stories that are hanging around from last week that are yet to be resolved.
0:08.2	We chatted a lot about strategy in Sailor and Bitcoin last week, but there's a lot of other things happening in crypto that warrant some attention.
0:15.5	Number one, we're looking at Binance versus the EU and its quest to be regulated under the mica set of rules and regulations for
0:22.6	exchanges and VASPs, as they like to be called in Europe. We're looking at the latest on that.
0:29.1	We're also going to be chatting about chat GPT 5.6 and mythos with the US. The US is really putting a
0:36.6	stranglehold on the latest and greatest
0:39.4	models coming out of the two big frontier labs. So checking in on the latest on those. And also,
0:46.4	Facebook is getting into prediction markets, not just building its own prediction markets that
0:50.8	doesn't really seem like it's for cash right now. It's for like points or something
0:55.4	or like funny money. But also it really wants to cut deals with Kalshi and polymarkets. So I'm
1:01.3	wondering what the Zuck is really up to. And again, if it's just too late to the meta already,
1:06.0	so to speak. All right. Okay, enough out of me. Let's just get into it. This is the breakdown.
1:18.0	Nothing said on the breakdown is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens.
1:21.1	This podcast is for informational purposes only and any views expressed by anyone on the show are
1:24.4	opinions, not financial advice. Host and guests may hold positions in the company's funds
1:27.4	or projects discussed. Okay, so European Binance users are being urged to take
1:32.2	their funds and assets and everything else off of the platform. Binance, this is from the Financial
1:38.0	Times on Friday. Binance has told its customers in the EU that it will stop providing services
1:42.2	to them from next week because it will not be
1:44.5	licensed to operate in the region in a significant setback for the world's biggest crypto exchange.
1:49.2	So these rules come into effect from July 1, which is on Wednesday.
	...

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