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Hey everybody, welcome to another episode of the Fuck Sexton Show. This week we have an expert in military and national security analysis.

Bill Rogio is with us. He's part of the Long War Journal. He's at the Foundation of Defense and Democracies.

He knows this stuff backwards and forwards. Bill, thanks for being with us.

Fuck always a pleasure. Thanks for having me on.

All right, so Ukraine. We're deep diving into Ukraine. Give everybody an assessment of where we are.

It's February 2023. We are one year into this war. What is the state of play right now?

Yeah, I think this war has not gone the way that just about everyone thought. At one point, everyone was concerned that the Russians were going to overrun the capital and out of the Ukrainian government.

And then after this fall, there was a lot of jubilation as the Ukrainians ejected the Russians from northern Ukraine as well as in the Kursin region in the South.

But things seem to have stabilized now. Russia has called up a mobilization of forces. There's estimated some ice-sull around 320,000 Russian troops inside Ukraine now, and another about 100, 250,000 in reserve.

So this is more than twice of the forces that the Russians began this war with. So we're sort of at a stalemate at this point, which was expected because of the winter months.

But the Russians do appear to be planning for an offensive, but it's hard to tell where they're actually doing this.

Right now, most of the fighting, most of the reporting of the fighting, is in the Donbass region in the east.

The Russians have been massing forces there, and they are taking some ground. It's slow. It's a slog.

But if they can take the city of Bokmode, it's a key city along the crossroads of two major highways.

It's a key transportation, a logistical hub for the Russians. But whether they could capitalize on those gains, it's really difficult to tell.

I see things far across the spectrum in the analysis of this, and given the way this war has gone, it's anyone's guess what the next phase is.

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