Biden Rising, Trump Confidence, Education Revolution
Lost Debate
The Branch
4.6 • 607 Ratings
🗓️ 25 June 2024
⏱️ 71 minutes
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to The Lost Debata Show for Politically Ecclectics. |
| 0:03.2 | I'm Robbie Gupta. |
| 0:04.4 | And in a little bit, we have my friend Dorel Bradford joining us for a far-reaching conversation on the state of education in America. |
| 0:12.6 | Before we get there, a couple things in the news right now, I think this is an important moment to take stock of where this election is. |
| 0:21.6 | And we've been doing that over the course of the past few episodes because I think this debate coming up later this week is going to be one of the most important forks in the road for this 2024 election. |
| 0:35.8 | And I think the way we view this race could change dramatically |
| 0:40.1 | in the next few days. So it's probably important just to crystallize where things are |
| 0:44.3 | heading into that debate. And one thing caught my attention this week that I think is a good |
| 0:50.2 | framing moment here, which is North Dakota governor Doug Bergam, who's, you know, |
| 0:55.1 | one of a few people that are being speculated as a possible pick for Trump for vice president, |
| 1:01.9 | was interviewed Sunday and said something that I think was really interesting. He was talking |
| 1:05.9 | about Trump, and he said, I think we have to just look at the fact that President Trump could |
| 1:10.3 | win this race, |
| 1:11.0 | regardless of who his vice president is. He's got the luxury of not having to pick someone. |
| 1:16.5 | This was an interview Bergam did on CNN. Now, I mentioned this because I'm seeing a lot of this in |
| 1:23.5 | my life, you know, whether it's, you know, offline or online. There is a lot of chest thumping from my friends |
| 1:30.6 | from the right, a lot of confidence heading into this election. And that confidence, I think, |
| 1:35.9 | is starting to border uncertainty from a lot of people saying, like, hey, like, we've got this. |
| 1:40.1 | Like, I couldn't. Somebody told me the other day and it's down now and it'd be like, the only way Biden wins is if he cheats again, right? I'm hearing stuff like that. And those of you been a long time listeners know I've generally been pessimistic about Biden's chances. Just like an episode or two ago, I shared the economist model, which had Biden having about a one-third chance. But a one-third chance is still a one-third |
| 2:02.5 | chance. And there are actually plenty of other models out there that are fairly rigorous that give |
| 2:07.1 | Biden a much better chance than that. And one of them, most importantly, is the 538 model, |
| 2:13.1 | which is probably the most sophisticated longest running model of this kind that's available to the |
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