From the Fox News radio studios in Midtown Manhattan, it's the fastest-growing radio talk show, Brian Kilmeade.

Yes, I'm Mary Walter sitting in for Brian Kilmeade. Hope you are having a wonderful day today.

I'd like to welcome some new stations to the Brian Kilmeade family, WPNO, 1450 in South Plains, excuse me, South Paris, Maine, and WECR 780 AM.

I'm run for Maine, the Patriot Oxford County's talk station. Welcome to the family. Great to have you.

Let's start this hour off right, shall we? Let's start it off talking about some midterm elections with Tom Bevin,

the co-founder and president of RealClearPolitics.com. Tom, welcome to the Brian Kilmeade show. Hi.

Hi, Mary. Great to be with you. Good. Always good to get to talk to you. There is so much going on.

I have to tell you before we get into this, I am absolutely shocked that some of these races are so close as close as they are.

You've got Rasmussen, the latest poll saying that in a generic ballot, just a generic ballot, that Republicans lead by one point.

How bad do Democrats have to actually do for people to go, oh yeah, maybe that's not a good idea.

Well, I mean, that's just one poll, but that is about where our RealClearPolitics averages.

You've got a pollster like a Trafalgar has the GOP plus five in the generic ballot and you've got other pollsters showing the Democrats with a lead in the generic ballot.

And that's really the only way we don't have any polling in these individual house raises.

So it's the best approximation that we can get as to which way the electorate is leaning overall when evaluating some of these, you know, these house races that are out there.

One thing I would say though about the generic ballot is that is a national number. And so Democrats tend to overperform on that question because they're not, they're not evenly distributed geographically around the country.

They're clustered in these urban areas. And so when you think about swing districts, when you think about, you know, real purple districts in suburban centers around the country, which is where a lot of these races are in Atlanta in Milwaukee and Phoenix.

You know, in Southern California, the Democrats are probably not doing as well as that generic ballot number just because they're not as, they're not as evenly distributed geographically as the GOPs.

Gotcha. So for Republicans to perform better because I think the view is people don't look at it as into it in depth as you do, right? Like you just explained to us, most people just look at it the way I do and said,

oh, wow, how can Republicans possibly be doing so horribly? How bad do Democrats have to be? Is the Republican problem that candidates, they're putting up or the messaging?

It depends on the race, you know, but what generally speaking, there's been a lot of talk of this election about how Democrats have sort of surged and the Dobs decision and all of that.

And I think there is evidence that the Dobs decision helped energize Democrats that were otherwise sort of feeling a little bit lackluster about their party, their president, the way things have been going.

But I mean, if you step back and look at the overall view here, the fundamentals from a historical standpoint, from an economic standpoint, from, you know, any metric you choose to look at presidential job approval direction of the country, they all favor the Republican party.

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