Welcome back to Beyond the Polls. This week, I'm joined by Chas Netticoe

to talk about his new election website, State Navigate. Let's dive in.

Friends, I think it's time we have a cold, hard conversation. And that is going to be about

where the midterm looks. This is early April,

and there's certainly a number of months left to go. But for the first time, it's starting to look

like 2018 again. Why do I say that? Let's take a look at President Jumps' overall job approval

rating. Today, as I record this, it is 41.1% on the

real clear politics average. Now, of course, you know that the real one is about half a point

to a point higher once you take out the all adults poll, but somewhere between 41 and 42.

Job approval rating on March 31st, 2018, 41.6, right at the same place.

Let's take a look at the generic ballot.

Again, as I'm recording this, the Real Clear Politics generic ballot average has Democrats up by six points,

and there are no polls of all adults in that average. So this is a same

translation, D plus six is the real number. What was it on April 1st, 2018? D plus 6.7. In other words,

for the first time, President Trump and the Republicans are now converging both with job approval and generic ballot on where you stood on 2018.

And we know what happened in 2018.

The president did improve his job approval rating.

He managed to get it up to 45% on election day, according to the exit polls.

Some of that was just that there's always people who will tell pollsters that they're

registered when they're not, say they're going to vote when they're not.

So it's not unusual when the actual job approval rating is a little bit higher than the

polling one, because the polling one includes these non-voters who think they're

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