Hey Peter Navar here with this week's economy and market wrap for the weekend in July 14th,

2023. Beware the wage price spiral.

Don't fight the tape and its more modern day equivalent, the trend is your friend.

Or familiar Wall Street cliches that perhaps best capture the market's present bullish mood.

Indeed, this week all US indices hit 15

north highs. The propellant for this latest move was seemingly good news on the inflation front. Both the Consumer Price Index

E. P. P. P. P. P. B. expectations with lower inflation numbers than estimated, and the Wall Street spin machine

used this news to argue that the Fed need not raise interest rates at its next meeting. Following this news, bond yields fell and

stock prices rose and the big bet now is on a soft landing that will accommodate the bulls.

This hope for soft landing will,

according to the bullish calls,

result in a continued decline in inflation

without a rise in the unemployment rate.

Fair enough.

Let's first take a deeper look at this week's actual inflation news. The

CPI still has the core inflation rate, which

excludes food and energy, more than twice

the Federal Reserve's 2% targeted 4.8%.

If we assume the Fed won't start lowering rates till the Corps hits 2%,

it is unlikely that will happen for many more months even if the current downward

trend continues. In the meantime the feds higher interest rates will remain high.

They will boost people's adjustable rate mortgages,

...