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This Is Hell!

Betting on US Elections / Francis Northwood

This Is Hell!

This Is Hell!

News

4.9937 Ratings

🗓️ 13 November 2024

⏱️ 109 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Francis Northwood joins us to discuss his new Baffler article titles "Unsafe Bets - Polymarket’s great expectations". Check out Francis' article :https://thebaffler.com/latest/unsafe-bets-northwood Help keep This Is Hell! completely listener supported and access bonus episodes by subscribing to our Patreon: www.patreon.com/thisishell

Transcript

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0:00.0

The I'm . I'm . I'm . I'm . The

1:13.6

The Big attack! Big attack! This is hell.

1:54.0

Manufacturing descent since 1996, this is hell.

2:04.6

And today we are definitely featuring a dissenting opinion when it comes to what happened in last week's presidential election.

2:12.6

How it was reported, and one polling source, the establishment of media repeatedly cited, whose co-founder has said,

2:19.3

go vote if you care about what happens in this election, don't sweat the polls.

2:25.3

So why would the co-founder of a polling service, who's probably the most famous pollster in the United States,

2:32.3

not want us to panic about polls when it seems

2:36.2

every TV and cable news operation wants us to obsess over the polls, leading to all sorts

2:41.9

of anxiety amongst an electorate who is already suffering in what past guests have called

2:47.2

an anxiety pandemic. Why fill us with angst, dread, doubt before the democratic process of

2:55.6

voting in an election? If it's an attempt to make the public apathetic and drive down voter

3:01.0

enthusiasm, it worked. Again, early numbers show that 15 million fewer voters were fewer votes, sorry, were cast

3:10.8

in the presidential election. Of course, we should keep in mind that there was also a lot of

3:16.5

undercounting due to voter suppression tactics and not all votes are in yet.

3:23.7

Nate Silver, formerly of 538, doesn't want us to panic about polls, but for some reason,

3:29.8

the legacy news media does.

3:32.5

One of those polling services, in fact, is very problematic, as today's guest will explain.

3:37.8

That poll is one you may have heard repeatedly cited in the run-up to this year's

3:42.6

presidential election. The service is not only co-founded by Silver, but it's also veiled in a lot,

3:48.6

a lot of secrecy. The service is a gambling site, but it wants to be more. The problem is its

3:55.6

numbers are likely based on insider trading by the most inside

...

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