Betting on the Iran war

Today, Explained

Vox

News, Daily News, Politics

4.3 • 10.3K Ratings

🗓️ 17 March 2026

⏱️ 27 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are making it possible for just about anyone to profit off war. This episode was produced by Hady Mawajdeh, edited by Amina Al-Sadi and Jolie Myers, fact-checked by Andrea López-Cruzado, engineered by Patrick Boyd and David Tatasciore, and hosted by Sean Rameswaram. A betting page on Kalshi about Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz. Photo by Samuel Boivin/NurPhoto via Getty Images. Listen to Today, Explained ad-free by becoming a Vox Member: vox.com/members. New Vox members get $20 off their membership right now. Transcript at ⁠vox.com/today-explained-podcast.⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0	There's a reporter named Emmanuel Fabian who's been covering the war in Iran for the Times of Israel.
0:05.3	Recently, he got a ton of feedback about a tiny article he wrote, but he couldn't figure out why.
0:10.9	It was about a missile that exploded just outside the Israeli city, Bates Shemish.
0:15.3	I'd appreciate it if you could update your article, as in its current form it does not reflect reality.
0:20.6	Someone wanted him to say it was a missile fragment instead of a missile.
0:24.6	Weird because it was a missile, not a fragment.
0:27.6	If you could correct this tonight, you'd be doing me and many others a great favor.
0:32.6	Eventually, the messages got more threatening.
0:34.6	You have exactly half an hour to correct your attempt to influence.
0:38.3	You will pay the full price for your irresponsible act.
0:42.3	Emmanuel finally figured out why people were getting so aggressive.
0:45.3	They had bet money on how bombings in Israel would play out on polymarket.
0:50.3	After you make us lose $900,000, we will invest no less than that to finish you.
0:56.1	Betting on the Iran War on today explained.
0:59.9	Security program on spreadsheets.
1:02.1	New regulations piling up?
1:03.8	An audit dread.
1:05.2	It's time for Vanta.
1:06.7	Vanta Automates Security and Compliance, brings evidence into one place and cuts audit prep by 82%.
1:13.3	Less manual work, clearer visibility, faster deals, zero chaos.
1:18.6	Call it compliance or call it calm clients. Get it.
1:22.6	Join the 15,000 companies using Vanta to prove trust. Get started at vanta.com slash calm.
	...

Please login to see the full transcript.

Previous episode | Next episode

Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Vox, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.

Generated transcripts are the property of Vox and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.