Believe it or not, recent NFL draft history tells us the Jets may have a better chance of hitting on a wide receiver at pick 16 than an edge rusher at pick two.

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I'm John B from gangreneation.com, and on today's show, we are going to take a look at recent NFL draft history and what it tells us about the

Jets odds of hitting on their first three picks in the NFL draft. In particular, we're going to

take a look at quarterbacks recently selected around pick 33, which is the Jets first pick in the second

round. Wide receivers selected around pick 16, which is the Jets' second pick in the first round,

and edge rushers who have

been picked in the top five. Now, I'm a big believer that you have to scout individual players,

but I also believe you need to know what the odds are as you enter the casino. So I think history

can be instructive. I think we can look at players selected at a

given position at a certain point in the draft. And look at their hit rate because I think the

teams sometimes misvalue their odds. And I think this leads to teams misvaluing their picks. I think

it leads to fans, media, and teams putting the wrong

expectations on players. And I may be guilty of this myself. I've looked through the recent

history of the NFL draft, in particular the last 10 years, because I think it's important to quantify

what realistic odds are for a player. Now, at number two, overall, it seems like

heading into draft week, and we are finally in draft week. It's been a long wait. It's been a long

journey, but we're finally here. At this point in time, on Monday, three days out, the pick is

very likely to be either Arvel Reese out of Ohio State or David Bailey

out of Texas Tech.

And the reason for that is obvious.

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