Betting on elections did predict the outcome, but did those betting markets just happen to be right?

I'm David Brancaccio in New York. First, just where informed investors are putting their money now is a useful guide for anyone trying to understand how the economy could shift in the second Donald Trump administration. Let's consult Lauren Goodwin,

chief market strategist at New York Life Investments. Welcome.

Good morning. Why might the U.S. dollar go higher in the scenario that we're now living?

There are many different and varying factors pushing and pulling on the dollar. But if it were

to move higher, it's likely because

the U.S. economy has been strong. There's expectations that more spending might push growth

and therefore inflation and interest rates higher that tends to be dollar positive. And in the

event that tariffs are implemented, that tends to be negative for the countries on the

receiving end of that, their currencies, which would push the dollar higher on a relative basis

as well. So if the dollar does get stronger, and it is even as we speak, it can make U.S.

made products more expensive to sell overseas. That would be one way an investor might play it.

It also means that U.S. consumers are able to buy more from overseas at a relatively

lower price on a U.S. dollar basis.

Now, one of the interesting contingencies there is that we know from the first Trump

administration that the trade deficit,

that very dynamic of the U.S. importing more than it's exporting for a given country is one of the

dynamics that the Trump administration is hoping to avoid. And so that implementation of a

tariff that contributes to a stronger dollar in some ways

can exacerbate that trade dynamic. The incoming president has vowed to be tough on immigration,

including increasing deportations. How does that play out for the wages that U.S. companies might

pay? It's unclear to most investors at this

...