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Beating The Book with Gill Alexander

Beating The Book: Aaron Schatz, Football Outsiders & NFL MegaPod Divisional Round 2020

Beating The Book with Gill Alexander

VSiN

News, Sports, Sports News, Football

4.7535 Ratings

🗓️ 9 January 2020

⏱️ 66 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Analytics perspective from Creator and Editor-in-Chief of Football Outsiders, Aaron Schatz, and Divisional Round Best Bets from CircaSports' Mike Palm and Showtime's betting docuseries star Todd Wishnev, with Host Gill Alexander and guest Jeff Parles.

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Check it out now. No doubt now.

0:09.1

Let us talk NFL once again.

0:13.1

We do this in some form.

0:14.9

This gentleman has been kind enough to join me, either on a podcast or on the radio show.

0:19.8

For eight years in a row now, I think, at this time of year. And I cannot think of enough. And I bet you when I said eight years, he's like, no, it can't be eight years. Ladies and gentlemen, the creator of Football Outsiders.com and a real pioneer in pro-football analytics, maybe the pioneer, quite frankly. It's our buddy Aaron Schatz. Good morning, Aaron.

0:53.4

Eight years. No, it can't be eight years. There it is. It's like I fed you that line. Yes, it is. It's eight years, Aaron. Aaron Schatz, who also works for ESPN, we should note, at F-O-U-U-S-S-C-H-S-C-H-A-T-Z.

0:57.0

Aaron, we'll get to the four games this weekend, but you know what I have to ask you first. You at football outsiders, you've been going back in history, and you

1:02.0

sort of got, I don't want to say stalled, but, you know, it slowed down when you got to

1:06.5

1986 and then into 1985, but you have completed 1985.

1:11.5

Up until now, the skins of 91 were number one all time through DVOA, the 2007 Patriots were second.

1:18.6

Did the 85 bears eclipse them both?

1:21.5

The answer is no for the regular season, and for the playoffs, if you include playoffs, they do eclipse the 2007

1:30.4

Patriots. But we still have your 1991 Redskins as our number one team of all time,

1:35.8

even including the playoffs. Yes. I don't know why this makes me so happy, Aaron, but it does.

1:40.6

Your numbers validates it. Obviously, look, this is only one way to measure. There are

1:47.0

multiple, you know, there's lots of different statistical methods to measure the past, and,

1:51.8

but this is the first time anybody has gone back and actually analyzed down to the play-by-play

1:56.9

level for these years from the 80s and 90s. So we do have, you know, if you, if you want to declare that the playoffs are twice as

2:06.3

important as the regular season, then the bears would slightly pass the Redskins.

2:11.3

What we, when I say with the playoffs included, I'm including the playoffs with each

2:15.6

playoff game with the same importance as the regular season.

2:19.6

And don't forget, as dominant as the 85 bears were in the playoffs, the 91 Redskins also were really good in the pale playoffs.

...

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