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Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Bearishness Emerging on Wall Street Within the Goldilocks Regime

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Investing, Business News, News, Business

4.11.1K Ratings

🗓️ 9 September 2021

⏱️ 39 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

DB-Sep08,2021: Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, anticipates that the Goldilocks regime will be persisting in the U.S. for awhile longer yet, offering fertile ground for asset prices to continue to perform. Drawing upon his macro indicators and analysis, he addresses the increasing bearish consensus being priced into risk assets and how tapering later in the year may have an impact on this dynamic. Interviewed by Jack Farley. Drop your questions for Darius here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3trKr7O Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to the Daily Briefing. I'm Jack Farley. It is Wednesday, September 8th. Today, I am joined

0:14.8

by Darius Dale of 42 macro. Darius, welcome back to Daily Briefing. How you doing?

0:20.2

I'm feeling fantastic, man. How you doing? I'm doing great. We had a pre-interview today where we were

0:25.4

just going at it, talking macro, probably 35 minutes, and I cannot wait to show the people at home

0:32.6

what's on your radar. Darius, I want to start off by noting that a lot of bearish research reports

0:40.8

have been coming out of the big banks, whether it's Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, or Goldman Sachs,

0:47.0

and I'd say three risks. The first risk is the Delta virus. Second risk is slowing economic growth

0:55.3

or the picking of economic growth. The third is balance sheet tapering by global central banks,

1:02.9

most notably the Federal Reserve. Reading your report from 42 macro, it seems like you're

1:08.8

not joining in this course of being bearish. You still see a lot of upside in the equity market

1:14.6

in being risk on. Tell us why. I'll tell you why. We're bullish. Let me start with where you

1:21.1

started, which is where the banks. Number one, Delta, if you look at East Asia, some of the survey

1:26.2

data coming out of Korea that's likely peaked, and we're on the other side of the peak economic

1:31.0

impact of Delta. Number two, why does Wall Street ever get bearish? It's valuation and it's their

1:36.5

surveys. I have no comment on the surveys, but valuation is not a catalyst over the near-to-medium

1:42.3

term. And then lastly, I have to forget what the other thing was. Oh, tapering. Oh, tapering.

1:46.8

Yeah, tapering. We don't expect the Fed to commence actual tapering, and I feel like I have to

1:52.4

underline or all cast actual every time I say it or write it in a report. We can talk about tapering

1:58.5

for six months, and if you're bearish because of that, you're just going to watch the stock market

2:02.7

grind higher, and they'll actually do something. It's been our view, increasingly been our view,

2:07.6

that the Fed's unlikely to commence actual tapering until December.

2:12.4

Yeah, I was reading a report in the Financial Times today, and it said, you know, Fed member

...

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