Be Careful What You Wish For

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Business News, Business, Investing, News

4.1 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 18 November 2022

⏱️ 33 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

U.S. equity indexes were mixed heading into the final two hours of the trading week, a fitting close as investors continue to struggle with data that suggest inflation has peaked and a Federal Reserve that, at least in public word, seems as hawkish as ever. “On November 10, 2022, inflation died,” Warren Pies writes in the most recent note from 3Fourteen Research. “And, despite our view that inflation is going to decelerate quickly over the coming year, there are still risks that could resurrect the beast.” Is the U.S. leading the way lower, or will inflation flare again? Warren joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about why bonds are the place to be and equities are at the top end of their range. We also hear from Kokou Agbo-Bloua, the Global Head of Economics at Societe Generale, about the ongoing transition from a lower-for-longer to a higher-for-longer rate environment. Watch the full conversation between Kokou Agbo-Bloua and James Helliwell here: https://rvtv.io/3UPnZSG. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome aboard this Air France podcast message. Air France and its crew invite you to discover
0:09.4	its business class cabin, where you can enjoy a full flatbed. For even more comfort, an
0:16.0	ultra soft duvet and pillow are at your disposal. Air France wishes you a pleasant podcast.
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0:37.4	Howdy everyone and welcome to the real vision daily briefing. First of all a happy Friday as we
0:43.9	alive here the 18th of November. It's basically been a sat day as Qatar has banned beer sales for the
0:50.9	World Cup starting this weekend. So I basically urge you to open a can of beer in your protest while
0:56.0	watching today's show. But joking aside, we've had a pretty positive couple of weeks after receiving
1:02.3	evidence that the inflation is slowing in the US, but is a lower inflation print per se a positive
1:11.2	equities. We're going to ask that question today and I'm super happy to be joined by a guy that I
1:16.7	wanted to interview for quite a while, namely Warren Pies, the founder of 314 Research. Warren
1:22.2	welcome its say, pleasures of finally get the chance to interview you. Likewise, I wanted to
1:27.8	have this conversation for a while, so looking forward to it. Indeed, so first things first,
1:35.3	the question that we're going to ask today, is it per se a positive for equities? As we've seen
1:41.6	in recent weeks, when inflation starts disinflating in the official CPI numbers, is there
1:47.7	sort of a true yes or no answer to that question more? There's rarely a true yes or no question.
1:53.6	Answer to any question in this game that we're playing. I think if you were to say hold all
1:59.0	else equal and just tell me inflation's falling from current levels and all the things that flow
2:05.8	from that, I think it is a net positive for equities, but obviously the devil is in the details
2:10.9	and why we're falling and things like that. Gun to my head, yes, I do think it's positive,
2:16.0	it's been our position that we're in a trading range and that once you get to the bottom of that
2:21.8	trading range around that 35, 3600 level, the market will start to get supported by this inflation
	...

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