Banks Can't Forecast Interest Rates Either (with Josh and Michael)

The Compound and Friends

Josh Brown

Business News, News, Investing, Business

4.7 • 2.2K Ratings

🗓️ 9 October 2019

⏱️ 13 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Welcome to the latest edition of What Are Your Thoughts - Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown break down the biggest topics of the moment. On this episode: * Get your story straight - are there too many IPOs coming out this year or not enough? 2019 is on pace to see the most capital raised by initial public offerings in a year since 2000, and possibly even break the record. The number of companies coming public is on pace to match or exceed prior records as well. So this is....good news? * Twitter's new app update has a "trailer" feature, previewing the next people who are about to show up on your timeline. Was this a solution in search of a problem? Does anyone actually need this? * The bond market has delivered big gains for investors this year. One year ago, the CEO of JPMorgan was concerned that 10-year treasury yields could soar to 5%. Today they're half that level and have gone in the exact opposite direction. And now he's talking about preparing the bank for zero percent interest rates. If Jamie Dimon doesn't know where yields are headed, why would any investor or financial advisor think their forecast would be better? * There are four NFL teams with 0-4 records, the Bengals, Redskins, Dolphins and Jets. Season over? Any point to keep watching? * Josh has a mea culpa. Amazon Prime does have some shows worth watching. In particular, 'The Boys' was a great first season. Michael recommends 'Catastrophe' next. Let us know below what else Josh should be watching on there. * So it looks as though we're getting another rate cut this month. Does this qualify as a "rate cut cycle"? Will a rate cut even help at this point? Are insurance cuts worth doing with unemployment at all time lows and the stock market at all time highs? * What is to become of your local sporting goods store? Will any survive besides Dick's? 1-click play or subscribe on your favorite podcast app Subscribe to the mini podcast on iTunes or Spotify Enable our Alexa skill here - "Alexa, play the Compound show!" Talk to us about your portfolio or financial plan here: http://ritholtzwealth.com/ Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice just for you or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Please see this 3,000 word terms & conditions disclaimer: https://thereformedbroker.com/terms-and-conditions/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Ladies and gentlemen welcome to what are your thoughts. I'm here with Michael Batnick as always. We are live from the compound and today
0:07.7	We're gonna play our favorite game. What are your thoughts involves Michael asking me questions? I have no idea what they'll be.
0:14.0	I will be asking him questions and he doesn't know what I'm going to ask. Stick
0:18.1	around. Let's see what's going on. Okay Michael I'm going first I want to ask
0:22.3	you about the fabled IPO window in the aftermath of the
0:27.6	we work debacle, or maybe that's not over yet. It's still an incredible year for IPOs. I just want to read you a couple of stats to set the table.
0:35.0	We may break the all-time record in dollars raised, $97 billion, which was set in the year 2000.
0:44.1	The median age of tech companies going public
0:46.8	in 1999 and 2000 was four years old.
0:50.4	Right now, it's 12. And the average listing day return for these IPOs is the highest since
0:56.7	2000.
0:57.7	2019 could also have the most new listings in five years.
1:02.4	My question to you is a lot of the people who complained about the market
1:06.4	because there were no IPOs and companies couldn't go public
1:10.4	are now complaining that there are too many deals, too many companies are getting exits,
1:15.0	and too many new businesses are listing, and maybe they're not high quality, or whatever the case may be.
1:20.0	Are these basically the people that would find fault with the IPO market literally no matter what what's going on it like is that kind of noise worth tuning out if you're an investor or should we be concerned that it's the best year since
1:33.6	99 are these fictional people that you speak of because I'm not seeing that no I see it
1:37.4	or I see it all the time and most of what exactly is happening maybe I'm
1:40.4	missing it I think it's people that are looking at We Work and then they're saying the other 50 IPOs this year are just as bad.
1:47.5	But that's not true.
1:48.5	Well, we know it's empirically not true.
	...

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