Hello, this is Kirk Spano with Margin of Safety Investing and Seeking Alpha and I'm here interviewing

Cash Flow Hunter, the banking sector in general. It's going to tighten up, we don't know exactly how much.

I have tightened it has tightened up quite a bit, yeah. to tighten up. We don't know exactly how much. I've wrote an article about that. There is a survey put out that. I never really paid that much attention to before but a economist pointed it out to me was the senior loan officer survey and it's it's starting the, you know, senior loan officers, particularly at regional banks, are responsible for an awful lot of liquidity and credit availability in this country,

particularly for small and medium-sized businesses.

And to the extent that they start saying,

hey, we're lending less.

I think it has been predictive of the last six

recessions going back to the 60s.

Well, yeah, that's something that I've been following as well. As I told you off air, I consult to some private equity firms and we've been looking at notes and properties in, well I was just in San Francisco, and it seems that the banks are going to get really tight here because the regional banks actually provided a lot of the funding for a lot of the

construction in the last five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten years. And a big batch of those loans

are due this year and next year year and the value of the properties is way below

what's owed on the properties. So you know you're seeing properties in big cities, Chicago,

San Francisco, all over the place.

Because the vacancy rates are so high, I believe record highs,

they can't get the rents, which means that the value of the property is lower, you know, how are they going to refinance those notes without actually having to actually do a lot of work on the property to convert it somehow.

So we're looking at that right now. Do you think that the impact is going to be that it pushes us into

recession and affects a lot of other things or do you think that the banks muddle through with assistance from the Fed and we try to stay close to even on lending or do you really see lending tailing off quite a bit for a little while?

I think lending will, it has tapered off.

I think it will not rebound so fast.

A lot of banks are going to be reluctant to lend until they really feel

stability within their deposit base, which could happen sooner rather than later but even if it does happen sooner I

don't think banks are going to be so fast to lend because the cost of deposits is still very high with an inverted

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