Back to Brussels
TALKING POLITICS
Catherine Carr
4.7 • 2.5K Ratings
🗓️ 3 February 2019
⏱️ 28 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
An extra episode as David and Helen try to work out where we've got to with Brexit after this week's votes in the Commons. Can Tory unity hold? Can EU unity hold? Something's got to give - but what? And when?
Talking Points:
Is there a contradiction in offering to renegotiate the backstop?
- If a no deal means a hard border and economic chaos, then maybe there is a good argument for reopening the backstop?
- If you’re sitting in Dublin right now, you might be nervous because the chance that Britain leaves without a deal seems higher than it was.
- Would the other EU states abandon Ireland?
The big loser of the week was the second referendum. There does not seem to be stomach in parliament for stopping Brexit.
- The massive tactical problem that May now faces is that Feb. 14 is way too soon
- An extension of Article 50? For what purpose? 60% of the UK electorate sees extending Article 50 as stopping Brexit.
- Does this mean that events are leading toward either a deal or no deal Brexit?
- A general election seems like the logical way out.
- But both Labour and the Tories would have a lot of problems in a general election.
There could be some common group between the ERG position and the EU position if all parties could be 100% confident that the backstop would not materialize.
- But it is also possible that we are totally trapped.
Mentioned in this Episode:
Further Learning:
- The FT on Germany’s current position
- Our recap of Theresa May’s crushing Commons defeat
- Can May get her deal over the line?
And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here: lrb.co.uk/talking
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | Hello my name is David Runseman and this is Talking Politics. This week an extra episode |
| 0:15.5 | Helen and I are going to try and make sense of where we are with Brexit. |
| 0:24.9 | Talking Politics is brought to you in partnership with the London Review of Books. |
| 0:29.1 | As politics speeds up slow down with a subscription to the LRB where Brexit and Trump are only part |
| 0:35.8 | of a picture that includes, well everything else. Read relevant pieces and subscribe |
| 0:42.0 | at a special rate at lrb.co.uk forward slash talking. |
| 0:53.9 | We are now a few days on from the really interesting series of votes in the House of Commons |
| 0:59.6 | as various amendments fell one by one until the Brady amendment passed. The next day |
| 1:05.7 | on Wednesday I travelled to Ireland in a day there and back to Dublin. |
| 1:11.4 | On the way there this was the morning after the night before I read the not the British |
| 1:16.3 | papers. I think we have to call them the English papers. That were celebrating Theresa's |
| 1:21.1 | triumph and on the way back I read the Irish newspapers from the same day that were |
| 1:25.9 | bmonning Theresa's betrayal and the Irish Times one of their columnists I thought made |
| 1:32.6 | the perfectly reasonable point that the reason we need a backstop is precisely because |
| 1:38.5 | the British government has decided that they can renegotiate the backstop because the |
| 1:42.3 | whole point of it is to provide security that is people's confidence in the future that |
| 1:49.4 | the border will not become a hard border. And putting those terms it does make it look |
| 1:55.4 | really hard for Theresa May to persuade Brussels which means at some level persuading the |
| 2:02.3 | Irish government that this question can be reopened because there is a point to the backstop |
| 2:08.4 | from the Irish point of view. They cannot be confident that British politics will not |
| 2:13.6 | really mess them around unless they have that security. But it just it partly sounds paradoxical |
| 2:19.3 | kind of we need the backstop because British government is saying we don't need the backstop |
... |
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