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The Dividend Cafe

Back in Charge: OPEC's Return to Economic Dominance

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Retirement Planning, Macro Economics, Investing, Estate Planning, Wealth Management, Dividend Growth Investing, Business, Monetary Policy

4.9572 Ratings

🗓️ 6 April 2023

⏱️ 27 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Ui1J4z

Last weekend’s news was not a Lehman bankruptcy, a Silicon Valley depositor backstop, or a Credit Suisse acquisition.  It was not even driven by U.S. forces, let alone the usual cast of characters in the Fed, Treasury, or FDIC.  Rather, it was OPEC+ making an announcement of production cuts in oil.  It didn’t crash markets – in fact, it caused a big rally in the energy sector.  But it is a big deal, and it warrants its own special Dividend Cafe.

I would never dare spend a Dividend Cafe pontificating on where the price of oil is going.  I do not know, and neither does anyone who trades or tracks oil for a living.  Commodity prices are inherently unknowable, and oil is at the top of that list.  Getting premises right is no surefire way to the right conclusion, and that applies to oil prices in spades.

But what I will spend this Dividend Cafe doing is pleading with you to see the non-oil ramifications of this oil move.  And by “this oil move,” I really mean a lot more than “this” oil move – I mean an entire set of events and conditions that, taken together, represent a significant change in global geopolitics and, with that, investment implications.

So let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe and digest all that is happening.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life.

0:12.6

Hello and welcome to the Dividend Cafe, a little different that we're putting it out on Thursday night, but it's actually quite rare in our business

0:22.4

that we have a Friday holiday. And yet that is what this week is on our good Friday as we go

0:29.3

into the Easter weekend. And so hopefully you'll have time over this weekend to take this in.

0:35.6

I kind of have a lot to go through. And so I'm just going to

0:39.3

get into it. It was a lot of work that went into this week's Diviny Cafe because I think it's a

0:43.9

very important topic. And it kind of covers a number of different subjects that I believe are all

0:50.0

correlated and connected. And they can seem to be separated, but they have a certain overlap that I think is

0:56.9

important in the way we think about this subject from an investing standpoint, as well as geopolitically.

1:03.1

And the issue is at a high level, the energy story, and particularly oil, oil markets, oil dependency, oil prices, where some of the

1:17.2

politics and geopolitics of oil play in.

1:21.6

But the subject became a sort of weekend escapade last Sunday. And it's funny, it was just two weeks ago. I'm

1:30.6

writing a Dividing Cafe about big Sunday disruptions in financial markets as we had bank

1:39.6

failures and FDIC bailouts and credits with takeovers by UBS and all those things.

1:47.4

And last Sunday I think was pretty big news, but wasn't so much related to financial markets

1:53.8

and certainly banking distress.

1:56.7

But the announcement from OPEC Plus that they were cutting a,

2:02.3

let's just round up and use, well, round down actually,

2:05.8

use a million barrels per day from their production quotas.

2:11.2

And that would kick in on May 1 and that they announced that as a target for the remainder of the year.

2:18.5

So, you know, you're quite literally talking about a couple hundred million barrels

2:22.6

coming out of intended supply in global production.

...

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