Summary
Birth rates in many countries, including China, Japan, Italy and the UK have dropped below replacement level. Clare McNeil asks if we should be concerned about this, and the burden it will place on taxpayers and the young, or welcome it as a good thing for climate change, where some think that the fewer consumers and CO2 emitters the better. But with fertility rates of 1.58 in England and Wales, and only 1.29 in Scotland, society is aging, with the higher healthcare and pension costs to be borne by the taxpayers of working age. What role could or should the government play in increasing the birthrate?
Presenter: Clare McNeil Producer: Arlene Gregorius Editor: Jasper Corbett
Speakers: Angie Hobbs, Professor of the Public Understanding of Philosophy, the University of Sheffield Lord David Willetts, President of the Resolution Foundation George Monbiot, environmental campaigner and author Felix Pinkert, Assistant professor of Philosophy and Economics, University of Vienna Jacob Hacker, Professor of Political Science, Yale University Jade Sasser, Associate Professor of Gender and Sexuality Studies, University of California, Riverside Ronald Lee, emeritus professor of Demography and Economics, University of California, Berkeley
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Just before this BBC podcast gets underway, here's something you may not know. |
| 0:04.6 | My name's Linda Davies and I Commission Podcasts for BBC Sounds. |
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| 0:41.0 | Thanks for listening to this edition of Analysis. Thank you baby boom or bust. Claire McNeil looks at what lies behind the fall in birth |
| 0:54.8 | rates around the world and how much of a headache this is for policy makers. |
| 0:59.0 | Britain could have a baby shortage. |
| 1:03.0 | Overall a fertility rate fell to 1.58 children per woman, |
| 1:08.0 | the lowest since records began in 1938. |
| 1:11.0 | Now, for context, the rate needed to keep the population stable is 2.1 |
| 1:19.3 | Fertility rates in the United Kingdom are in a downward spiral, with government statistics showing |
| 1:24.8 | they reached a record low last year. |
| 1:27.4 | Astonishingly, by the end of the century, some forecasts suggest that global average for |
| 1:32.4 | fertility rates will have fallen to 1.6 births per woman. |
| 1:36.0 | That's about the same as in England and Wales today, which is well below the so-called replacement rate of 2.1. |
| 1:44.0 | With birth rates this low, demographers have argued that population growth |
| 1:48.0 | will give way to population decline, |
| 1:51.0 | and that decline could be steep. |
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