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Wall Street Breakfast

Avoiding recession, cooling inflation, AI plays and financial earnings with Victor Dergunov

Wall Street Breakfast

Seeking Alpha

News, Business News, Investing, Business

4.11K Ratings

🗓️ 23 July 2023

⏱️ 24 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Victor Dergunov runs The Financial Prophet.
  • (0:35) 25 basis point increase likely coming from Fed and already priced into the market
  • (4:20) Cooling inflation and how macro picture is affecting earnings
  • (11:00) Avoiding a textbook recession; looking for troubling signs
  • (18:20) Favorite AI plays - the heavy lifters
This is an abridged conversation from Seeking Alpha's Investing Experts podcast.

Transcripts on Seeking Alpha
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Transcript

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0:00.0

My name is Rina Sherbel. I'm excited to bring you my conversation today with

0:04.2

Victor Dergenov who runs the investing group the financial profit here on

0:09.2

Seeking Alpha. If you are enjoying the show please leave us a rating and review.

0:14.8

Any articles discussed today, you can find links to them on our show notes, and all episodes

0:20.2

have transcripts available on Seeking Alpha.

0:22.6

All right, lay on us what you think about the Fed,

0:25.7

what you think is going to be happening kind of maybe near term

0:29.2

and maybe post near term.

0:31.0

We know that it's going to be at a 25 basis

0:33.4

pointing increase next Wednesday. That's about, you know, the

0:36.8

probabilities of that are like 96% I'm looking now. That's according to

0:41.6

the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group.

0:45.0

So there's a, you know, a very high probability that we're going to see a 25% basis

0:49.9

point increase.

0:50.9

That's already priced into the market in my view should that should not be a

0:54.0

surprise to anyone you know another 25 basis point move here it's it's not really

1:00.3

going to make a dramatic difference at all I think what I'm looking for

1:04.6

though is is the statement and I want to you know we we saw the inflation numbers come

1:09.5

down the the CPI reading was actually very very favorable to the last one it was well below the estimate and you know that should

1:19.2

open up the door to a bit of a of an easier monetary stance from the Fed, I think,

1:26.4

especially down the line,

1:27.4

they can probably hint to some kind of,

...

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