Good Wednesday morning. I'm Anna Palmer and welcome to your Politico Playbook audio briefing, sponsored by AARP.

Jake is in Columbus, Ohio. House Republicans there appear to be the narrow winners of last night's special

election, and they find themselves facing a conflicting political pitcher. On the one hand, they've won nearly every special election

in the Trump era. Unemployment numbers are low, and private polling shows embattled incumbents

fearing well against their democratic challengers. But, and it's a big but, incumbents are getting

outraised. Sky high and unsustainable spending has masked a tough

political environment. History tells us Republicans are near certain to lose the House. And last night,

Danny O'Connor appears to have come within 1,700 votes of toppling Troy Balderson for a seat

that should be a walk for the GOP. This is all magnified by President Donald Trump,

who boasts that the public perception of the 2018 electoral climate is wrong, and the Republicans

could indeed expand their majorities come November. Here's what people are chattering about.

Republicans avoided a multifaceted disaster last night. If they lost, money would have gone dry. Balderson's tight as a tick victory should put all GOP incumbents on notice that this is a very challenging electoral climate. It's the second tier candidates,fives to R-plus-10s who need to watch their backs.

Endangered incumbents are already well aware they have races. Here are a couple things to think about.

Moral victories warm Democrats' hearts, but they won't win back power. This seat should never have

been in play, John Kasich and Pat Teaberry were the last

two Republicans to represent the district. If Democrats can make a bunch of seats like this

competitive, they'll win some, and they can, of course, win the House. Nancy Pelosi found herself

as the issue once again. Republicans say they had a tough time finding negatives to hit O'Connor until he

appeared to open the door to backing Pelosi in a television interview. But keep in mind, they can't keep

this spending up. The GOP has so far overcompensated for a bad environment and bad candidates by

spending heaps of money. They spent $3.1 million in Ohio and $3.5 million

in an unsuccessful bid to drag Rick Sacon over the finish line against Connor Lamb in Pennsylvania.

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