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Hey, good morning, Playbookers, some Rogumonovalin. It's Wednesday.

After last night's election results, it might be time to adjust your expectations for November.

It's your Politico Playbook daily briefing.

For weeks, pundits have honed in on the special election in New York's 19th congressional

district as a national bellwether.

The seat is a true toss-up, one of those rare districts won by Barack Obama in 2012, Donald

Trump in 2016, and Joe Biden in 2020, and the national parties responded appropriately,

sending in huge sums of money and organizational resources to win it.

The race would offer a trial run of the party's general election messages.

As Politico's Bill Mahoney writes, Democrat Pat Ryan's quote, ads hammered on the need to elect

a representative who would fight for abortion rights in the wake of the Supreme Court's

June decision undoing Roe v. Wade, while Republican Mark Molinaro's campaign, quote, centered on crime and

inflation. And last night, Ryan defeated Molinaro. Not only that, he overperformed Biden in 2020.

As elections analyst Ryan Matsumoto noted last night on Twitter, quote, Democrats have now outperformed

Biden's numbers in each of the four U.S. House special elections since the Dobbs' decision in June.

A win there by Democrats is the clearest evidence yet that the 2022 election is unlikely to turn out

quite the way that conventional wisdom imagined less than a year ago, after Republican Glenn

Yonkin rode a red wave into the Virginia governor's mansion. All right, that doesn't necessarily mean

that Dems will hold the House and the Senate, nor does it mean that Republicans will be in the

minority come 2023. But as Politico-Zack Montalero writes, quote, Ryan's victory in the marginal

swing district suggests that Democrats have at least a chance of bucking both's traditional

...