This is Exchanges at Goldman Sachs where we discuss developments currently shaping markets, industries in the global economy.

I'm Jake Stewart, global head of corporate communications here at the firm.

Today we're talking about the economic outlook for the Asia Pacific region in

2021. We're joined by Andrew Tilton. the

Asia Pacific region in 2021. We're joined by Andrew Tilton, the firm's chief Asia Pacific economist and head of global

emerging markets economic research. Andrew, welcome back to the program.

Thank you. Good to be here. So Andrew, welcome back to the program. Thank you.

Good to be here.

So Andrew, each year you publish an economic outlook for the following year.

You recently put your report out.

How does your view of economic growth in Asia for 2021 compare to the consensus view?

We're optimistic about growth in Asia Pacific next year.

We think the region could grow more than 7% in 2021. We're optimistic about the world also. We think the world can grow about 6%.

But especially optimistic about Asia Pacific for a few reasons. First, the region has very good control of the

virus in many parts, particularly in parts of Northeast Asia and Australia, New Zealand.

Second, as in other places we think, we'll see widespread vaccinations in significant parts of the region next year.

Third, the biggest economy, China has already recovered quite a lot from the coronavirus shock. It's already up on a year

of a year basis and showing strong momentum into the end of the year. So China's already

normalized a lot and has pretty strong momentum heading into 2021. So it looks good for growth in Asia Pacific next year.

You say in the report that the Asia Pacific region is entering a second transitional phase of recovery.

What does that phase look like and what can we expect from economic activity?

Well, I think when I referred to the second phase,

...