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PBS News Hour - Segments

As Trump’s tariffs kick in, economist breaks down inflation and recession warning signs

PBS News Hour - Segments

PBS NewsHour

Daily News, News

4.11K Ratings

🗓️ 7 August 2025

⏱️ 6 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

After months of delay and backroom dealmaking, the Trump administration has imposed sweeping tariffs on nearly 100 countries, sending U.S. import duties soaring to their highest levels in nearly a century. To help break down the impact of the new tariffs and interpret some signs we’re seeing across the economy, Geoff Bennett spoke with Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. PBS News is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to the News Hour. After months of delay and backroom dealmaking, the Trump administration has

0:05.8

imposed sweeping tariffs on nearly 100 countries, sending U.S. import duties soaring to their

0:11.1

highest levels in nearly a century. The new rates range from 10 to 15 percent for Japan, the EU, and the

0:17.8

UK that negotiated agreements, and as high as 50% on nations such as Brazil and India.

0:24.2

India's tariffs are scheduled to take effect in three weeks.

0:27.3

Meantime, many countries continue to work behind the scenes to negotiate more favorable deals.

0:31.9

To help break down the impact of the new tariffs and interpret some of the other signs we're seeing across the economy,

0:42.9

were joined again by Diane Swank. She's chief economist at KPMG. That's the global consulting and accounting firm. Diane, it's always great to see you. So the Yale Budget Lab ran the numbers

0:48.2

and found that the average effective tariff rate is now about 18%. That's the highest it's been since

0:54.0

1933. Put that into perspective

0:57.0

for us. What does that mean for the U.S. economy overall? Well, what's really important is that

1:03.6

tariffs tend to be historically. They're a one and done, a bump up and a one-time increase in price

1:09.7

levels. But this doubling of tariffs,

1:12.4

basically doubling from what we saw in June, the effective tariff rate, that is not only going

1:17.8

to add to another increase in prices, which are only beginning to see the early signs of right now,

1:25.1

but it also, the tariffs are so large that they also squeeze profit

1:29.7

margins and that means cost cutting or layoffs. And so what we're worried about is a sort of

1:36.0

stagflationary kind of nature of these tariffs because they're so large and they're just

1:41.8

unable to be completely absorbed by either firms themselves or completely

1:47.0

passed on to consumers 100%. We're looking for inflation to pick up to about 3.5% by year

1:53.3

end and then stay elevated a little bit longer than we initially expected because of the sequential

1:59.7

nature of these tariffs and the fact

...

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