Commodities were the best performing asset class in 2022, but have recently taken a hit as recession fears loom.

So what's a store for them in 2023?

Historically, this is one of the most bullish environments you can create for commodities.

This is exactly the setup we saw in 2007.

I'm Allison Nathan and this is exchanges at Goldman Sachs. In today's episode, I'm sitting down with my colleague Jeff Curry, global head of commodities

research in our Global Investment Research Division to discuss his outlook for commodities,

the drivers behind recent price declines, and where we go from here.

Jeff, welcome back to the program.

Thanks for having me.

Jeff, let's start with some context.

Tell us what drove the strong commodity performance last year and why that positive momentum seemed to

shift late in the year. Well there's a emphasis that this was driven by the

invasion by Russia of Ukraine.

I want to dismiss this right up front.

The rally that we saw in the first half of 2022

was a continuation of the strength and commodities that started in the middle part of 2020.

You just like at a chart, it's just a line that's a fairly linear going up over that time period.

I'm not going to say there wasn't a big pop around

Russia's invasion of Ukraine because clearly there was, but it wasn't the sole

driver of what was occurring.

Let's take a step back and just talk about some of these drivers.

One was a much longer lasting under-investment theme of a lack of capacity to produce these commodities that when faced

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