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Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Is Dead | CoinDesk Daily

CoinDesk Podcast Network

CoinDesk

News, Tech News, Daily News, Business News

4.7698 Ratings

🗓️ 9 October 2025

⏱️ 3 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Why does Arthur Hayes argue that bitcoin's 4-year cycle no longer stands? Arthur Hayes is arguing that the primary catalyst behind previous bitcoin bear markets in 2014, 2018, and 2022 was monetary tightening in major economies, not the four-year halving cycle. What's next for bitcoin price then? CoinDesk’s Jennifer Sanasie hosts “CoinDesk Daily.” - Break the cycle of exploitation. Break down the barriers to truth. Break into the next generation of privacy. Break Free. Free to scroll without being monetized. Free from censorship. Freedom without fear. We deserve more when it comes to privacy. Experience the next generation of blockchain that is private and inclusive by design. Break free with Midnight, visit midnight.network/break-free - Bridge simplifies global money movement. As the leading stablecoin issuance and orchestration platform, Bridge abstracts away blockchain complexity so businesses can seamlessly move between fiat and stablecoins. From payroll providers and remittance companies to neobanks and treasury teams, Bridge powers payments, savings, and stablecoin issuance for thousands – like Shopify, Metamask, Remitly, and more. URL: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://hubs.ly/Q03KGbRK0⁠⁠⁠⁠ - This episode was hosted by Jennifer Sanasie. “CoinDesk Daily” is produced by Jennifer Sanasie and edited by Victor Chen.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Polymarket CEO Shane Copeland is the world's youngest self-made billionaire, and Arthur Hayes says the four-year cycle is no more.

0:08.0

You're watching Coin Desk Daily. I'm your host, Jen Sanasi.

0:17.0

Polymarket founder and CEO, Shane Copeland, has become the world's youngest self-made billionaire,

0:21.6

according to the Bloomberg Billionaire's Index. The milestone comes after Intercontinental Exchange,

0:26.6

the owner of the New York Stock Exchange announced on Tuesday that it would invest as much as $2 billion in the prediction market

0:32.6

at an $8 billion pre-money valuation. Now 27 years old, Copeland launched Polymarket in June 2020,

0:39.8

after spending a year studying how prediction markets could improve decision-making. The platform's

0:44.7

breakout moment came in the 2024 U.S. presidential election when betters wagered more than $3 billion

0:50.1

on potential outcomes. Utility or privacy. The transparency of traditional

0:55.0

blockchains forces a difficult choice. Break free from this limitation with midnight. Just like

1:00.2

the internet made information global, stable coins are making money global. And Bridge, a

1:04.4

stripe company, is powering that shift. Arthur Hayes is arguing that Bitcoin's traditional

1:09.4

four-year market cycle no longer stands.

1:12.1

In an essay titled Long Live the King, he said that the primary catalyst behind previous Bitcoin bare markets in 2014, 2018 and 2022, was monetary tightening in major economies, not the four-year halving cycle.

1:23.4

The Maelstrom co-founder and CIO says Bitcoin is unlikely to enter a bare market in the coming months as support of monetary conditions are expected to prevail.

1:31.7

And a Luxembourg sovereign wealth fund has invested a 1% sliver of its holdings into Bitcoin ETFs, making it the first state-level fund in the Eurozone to tap into Bitcoin.

1:40.6

That's according to a representative for the agency for the development of Luxembourg's Financial Center. European nations, Finland and the UK also holds Bitcoin. That's according to a representative for the agency for the development of Luxembourg's

1:44.3

Financial Center. European nations, Finland and the UK also holds Bitcoin, although Bitbo

1:49.5

data shows most of that crypto is sourced from criminal seizures. Jonathan Westhead, an official

1:54.8

from the Luxembourg Finance Agency, said via email that the investment recognizes the growing

1:59.5

maturity of this new asset class

2:01.3

and underlines Luxemburg's leadership and digital finance.

...

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