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Lost Debate

Are We Heading for a Recession?

Lost Debate

The Branch

News, Society & Culture, Politics

4.6607 Ratings

🗓️ 6 August 2025

⏱️ 42 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Ravi is joined by hedge fund founder Spencer Hakimian for a deep dive into the state of the U.S. economy under Trump. They begin with the firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a move that raises urgent questions about data integrity and the politicization of economic institutions. From there, they discuss Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s likely exit and what Trump’s next appointment could mean for the future of the Fed. Finally, Ravi and Spencer assess the growing risk of stagflation and share how they’re personally thinking about everything from gold and short-term bonds to international stocks and AI-fueled equities in this uncertain environment. -- Leave us a voicemail with your thoughts on the show! 201-305-0084⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow Ravi at @RaviMGupta Notes from this episode are also available on Substack: https://thelostdebate.substack.com/ Follow The Branch at @thebranchmedia Listen to more episodes of Lost Debate on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-lost-debate/id1591300785 Listen to more episodes of Lost Debate on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7xR9pch9DrQDiZfGB5oF0F

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to The Lost Debata Show for Political Ecclectics. I'm Robbie Gupta and today I am joined by Spencer Hakemium, who is the founder and chief investment officer of the hedge fund, Tulu. He'll correct me when we get on capital management, which created artificial intelligence models using historical data to predict price fluctuations in different assets and

0:22.0

has earned huge returns.

0:24.5

I've been following Spencer for some time and enjoy his sharp takes on the economy and other

0:29.9

issues.

0:30.6

Before we hear from our guest today, I just want to note that this podcast is for informational

0:34.4

purposes only.

0:35.4

Nothing discussed here should be considered investment advice and

0:37.8

we're not liable for any losses, damages, or liabilities that may arise from its use. Let's jump in.

0:44.8

Spencer, you are coming on at a very interesting time economically, so thanks for joining us today.

0:50.2

Thank you for having me on, Ravi. I'm a big fan of this show, and it's really interesting. So it's an honor to be on. Well, I told you this offline. I warned you about our audiences, like eclectic politically, and you and I, and you especially have some sharp takes about what's going on in the economy. And what we're going to try to do today is go through sort of issue by issue and say, okay, where are we today and where are we heading and, you know,

1:13.0

mix in some of the politics of the moment, which there are plenty. And we'll do our best to stand up

1:18.3

the arguments both for and against our positions here. And I think there's one place to start here,

1:23.7

which I actually think is pretty hard to find to stand up the counter argument. Is this firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Department, I guess it is, within the U.S.

1:35.9

government. Now, it's funny, I have a friend who I said this to a little while ago. I was thinking

1:41.0

of what I was going to buy. I was trying to mix up my assets heading into the Trump administration and saying,

1:46.5

all right, what do I want to put my money into to hedge or at least perform decently well

1:53.2

in a world where I think stagflation is coming?

1:55.3

And I was looking at tips, ETFs, and assuming that inflation was going to go up.

1:59.4

But what I said to her was, I'm worried that Trump is going to fire the people who report the data so that we, I actually, like, even in a world of inflation, that these sort of investments that are indexed to inflation won't perform the way they should because we won't get actually solid data. And I was like, I actually predicted that they were going to fire this person. I can't remember whether I said on this podcast that that was going to happen.

2:20.6

But tell us what is, like, what is this entity and why is it important?

2:25.0

Yeah, for sure.

2:25.6

Well, first of all, that's actually a very prescient comment that you've made because most

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