Are we heading for a global recession?
The Inquiry
BBC
4.6 • 1.7K Ratings
🗓️ 10 October 2019
⏱️ 23 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
The world’s two biggest economies are fighting a trade war, European growth is slowing and global manufacturing data looks grim. Financial markets are flashing warning signs. It’s been a decade since the last global recession and in 2019 so far, the data has started to turn down. Are we on the verge of an economic meltdown? And what can countries do to avoid recession or reduce its impact when it comes?
(A container ship being loaded in a harbour in Asia. Credit: Getty images)
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the inquiry on the BBC World Service. I'm Duncan Weldon. |
| 0:04.0 | Each week, one question, four expert witnesses and an answer. |
| 0:09.0 | It's just after 9 a.m. on Sunday the 5th of May this year and somewhere in the White House |
| 0:18.0 | President Donald Trump has just picked up his phone and opened Twitter. |
| 0:22.0 | For months a trade war between the world... picked up his phone and opened Twitter. |
| 0:23.5 | For months a trade war between the world's two largest economies, the US and China, has been |
| 0:28.4 | spooking markets, worrying business and slowing global growth. |
| 0:33.0 | But talks have gone well. |
| 0:35.0 | Most people now expect a deal and a trade truce. |
| 0:38.0 | Most people, it seems, are wrong. |
| 0:41.0 | Trump sends two tweets. |
| 0:43.0 | He writes, |
| 0:44.0 | For 10 months, China has been paying tariffs to the USA. |
| 0:47.8 | 10% on $200 billion of other goods. |
| 0:52.0 | The 10% will go up to 25% on Friday. The trade deal with China |
| 0:56.8 | continues but too slowly as they attempt to renegotiate. No. The truce is off. As US-Chinese tensions rise, Europe's economy continues to slow. Global manufacturing |
| 1:09.3 | data gets worse and worse. Within weeks, the all-important market for government bonds is sending a clear warning |
| 1:16.2 | sign. A recession is coming. So this week we're asking, are we heading for a global recession? |
| 1:27.0 | Part 1, death and taxes, |
| 1:41.0 | but there's actually a third thing, which is that we're going to go into a recession. |
| 1:45.0 | Our first expert witness is Megan Green, an economist and senior fellow at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. |
| 1:54.0 | And that sounds like a gloomy start. |
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