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Good morning. Welcome to Axios today. It's Thursday, July 7th. I'm Nila Buddha.

Here's what we're watching. It's a crucial week for detained WNBA star, Brittany Griner.

Plus, hope for the holy grail of coronavirus vaccines. But first, today's one big thing.

How to tell if we're headed for a recession.

Is the US sliding into a recession? That's a question on a lot of people's minds right now,

but I have another one for you. What does it look like to have a recession when we have a strong

labor market? Here to break down, what a recession really means and what economic challenges

Leah had for us as Axios' chief economic correspondent, Neil Irwin Heineel.

Hi, Nila. Let's start with an important definition. Well, lots of people are throwing

around the term recession. It's actually up to the National Bureau of Economic Research to

actually define if a recession is occurring correct. Yeah, there's a committee of eight

academics, eight PhD economists, who have meetings every now and again to debate whether or not

there has been a turning point in the economy and either a recession has started or recessions

ended. They define it as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy

that lasts more than a few months, which is a mouthful. But that's how they think of a recession.

How do most people think about the definition of a recession?

I think if you're a normal person just living your life trying to have a job and have a good economic

life, what you think of is recessions when things are bad. It's almost that simple. If it's hard

to get a job, it's a recession. If you can't afford your groceries and your gas bill, that's a

...