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Money For the Rest of Us

Are U.S. States Just Like Greece?

Money For the Rest of Us

J. David Stein

Investing, Investing Podcast, Business, Economics, Economy

4.51.4K Ratings

🗓️ 13 December 2017

⏱️ 29 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

#185 How Illinois and other states can suffer a debt crisis like Greece but why it wouldn't lead to an economic depression similar to what Greece suffered.

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Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to Money for the rest of us. This is a personal financial note on money, how it works, how to invest it, how to live without worrying about it.

0:09.0

I'm your host David Stein. Today is episode 185 and it's titled Are U.S. States

0:16.0

just like Greece? Illinois, the state of Illinois is the fifth largest economy in the United States and the

0:26.0

18th largest worldwide. Per capita GDP is over $54,000. And the amount of output per person in Illinois is over $54,000.

0:39.0

And the economy has expanded by over 11% since 2012.

0:46.3

And the banks there are doing well.

0:48.0

Overall, the banks in Illinois

0:50.5

have non-performing loans as a percent of their total loans of only around 1%.

0:58.0

Unemployment rate is roughly 5% and the economy's big, 850 billion dollars in output. But there was some

1:11.6

challenges in Illinois this year. The state legislature failed to pass a budget for the second year.

1:19.6

This was in May of 2017, and the state owed over $15 billion in unpaid bill. Their debt was

1:30.9

downgraded to just above junk status. So Moody's in S&P about triple B minus, they have massive

1:42.0

pension liabilities that are unfunded.

1:44.5

The three largest pension plans have about $136 billion of unfunded liabilities.

1:51.5

And the market for their bonds took notice.

1:57.0

At one point the taxable, so not tax exempt, but the taxable general obligation bond for the state of Illinois

2:07.1

due in the year 2035 was yielding over 7% and the tax-exempt bonds, the 10-year tax-exempt bonds were yielding over 5%.

2:18.0

Now right now things have settled down. They were able to finally pass a budget but tax exempt bonds 10-year bonds in

2:28.3

Illinois still yield about 4% and on a tax equivalent basis if you're in a 25% tax bracket that's about a 5.3% tax

2:39.7

equivalent yield. So that's Illinois. Had some struggles, has some challenges, but still economies

2:46.8

growing. But their debt, yielding about 5% on a tax equivalent basis, 4% tax exempt. Let's compare that to Greece. Well first

2:59.2

let me step back. The overall amount of debt in Illinois is $62 billion.

...

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