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We are now just over the halfway point of this campaign.

And what has happened?

Was it, according to Rishi Sunak's plan, that gradually, as more

and more people learned about the Labour Party, that that massive gap between Labour and Tory would

start to close? No. In fact, things have gone the other way. Tories losing support. And the latest

polls suggest that if the election were held today, the Conservatives

would not just lose, they would not just lose badly, a la 1997, they would be decimated to a rump

force of around 70 seats. Yes, we probably won't have seen anything like this in Britain

since the Ice Age and what did for the dinosaurs,

because frankly, what you're looking at is a near extinction level event if the polls are right.

And your heart says they can't be right. The Tories are here forever. They can't be going down the toilet like that.

But your head says,

it's possible. Welcome to the newsagents.

The Newsagents. It's John. It's Lewis.

It's Emily. And maybe we should start with that whole idea of polls versus poll. Because the one that came out last night, which is the one that really is talking about this extinction level event, is servation. And it is kind of an outrider at the moment to many of the others, not least because it is predicting seven parliamentary seats for reform, which I think most other pollsters would say is a pretty tough gamble that one. But the thing about servation and maybe why people are taking this

one so seriously is it was them who actually created, if you like, this idea of the red wall

and predicted in 2019 it was the red wall that would go.

And so people are looking to this repeat model and say, well, you called it well that time.

Maybe this is worth listening to this time. But what they tend to do is distribute their vote a bit

differently from other pollsters. They make it more spiky in better areas.

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