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What A Day

Are The Polls Wrong...Again?

What A Day

What A Day

Daily News, News

4.612.6K Ratings

🗓️ 26 October 2024

⏱️ 34 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Trump is winning the presidential race according to some polls. But others say Harris is ahead. What’s the point of following the polls if they contradict each other and, at times, seem outright broken? On this week’s “How We Got Here,” Max and Erin talk with Crooked’s Dan Pfeiffer to explain how Trump, the pandemic, iPhones and more messed with the reliability of presidential election polls.

Transcript

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0:00.0

So Max I was looking at the polls earlier and I just don't know what to make of them anymore.

0:05.0

Oh, tell me about it. One poll has Kamala up in Pennsylvania, but down in Arizona, another has the reverse. Some have her up in both.

0:12.0

And Mercury is going to be in retrograde I mean even

0:14.8

the polling nerds are losing it here's CNN's election guy Harry Enten a few days

0:18.9

ago we talk about a historically close race oftentimes we talk about the national polling,

0:23.8

but I wanted to try and dig into the state numbers

0:26.0

to get an understanding of how close this race is.

0:28.9

Holy cow.

0:30.6

Harry, tell me about it.

0:31.8

This whole thing has got me pulling my hair out me

0:34.0

me too which just has me checking the polls even more to try to get some clarity yes

0:39.2

I'm checking polls at breakfast sneaking polls a day at work refreshing the forecaster models right before bed.

0:45.0

Ooh, that sounds like bad sleep hygiene Max.

0:48.0

All those polls and forecasts and none of it ever seems to bring us any closer to knowing who was going to win this election.

0:55.0

Which when you think about it is kind of weird, right?

0:58.0

I'm Aaron Ryan.

1:01.0

I'm Max Fisher and this is how we got here a series where we explore a big

1:04.4

question behind the week's headlines and tell a story that answers that question.

1:07.8

Our question this week is polling broken.

1:10.3

You hate to beat up more on election forecasters who took such a lashing in the last two presidential elections.

1:16.0

Well, that's my point. The forecast models got it wrong the last two times,

1:20.0

and this time around they can't even tell us where the race stands.

...

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