Are oil prices determining the course of the Iran war?
The Global Story
BBC
3.8 • 668 Ratings
🗓️ 10 March 2026
⏱️ 27 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Oil prices surged to a four-year high on Monday, before dipping after President Trump said the Iran war will end “very soon”. Just days ago, Trump said that he would not stop the war until Iran’s “unconditional surrender”.
Turmoil in the region had led to the near complete shutdown of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran has reportedly said it will not allow “one litre of oil” to be exported from the Gulf if US-Israeli attacks continue.
We speak to BBC economics correspondent Andy Verity about the lessons both the US and Iran might be learning from the oil crises of the 1970s, and ask whether oil could determine how and when the war ends.
Producers: Sam Chantarasak and Xandra Ellin Executive producer: James Shield Studio manager: Mike Regaard Mix: Travis Evans Senior news editor: China Collins
Photo: 3D-printed oil pump jacks, Iranian flag, and a rising stock graph appear in this illustration. Credit: Reuters/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | BBC Sounds, Music, Radio, Podcasts. |
| 0:05.0 | Is the price of oil what will decide the outcome of the Iran war? |
| 0:11.0 | Oil prices soaring, West Texas crude now hovering around $100 a barrel. |
| 0:17.0 | The biggest weekly gain ever recorded. |
| 0:20.0 | Yeah, it is absolutely staggering. |
| 0:21.2 | Look, oil prices are going through the roof. |
| 0:23.2 | And you know, I've spoken with, tell me that they feel like there is no relief in sight. |
| 0:27.2 | When I woke up overnight and prices around $120 a barrel, I don't want to use this word loosely, but there was borderline panic. |
| 0:34.3 | Donald Trump spent a chunk of Monday afternoon on the phone with reporters in an apparent attempt to calm the situation. |
| 0:43.4 | Then he held a press conference in Dural, Florida, where he said the war would be over soon. |
| 0:48.7 | You called it an excursion. You said it would be over soon. Are you thinking this week it will be over? |
| 0:53.3 | No, but soon. I think so. Okay, and with respect to... over soon. Are you thinking this week it will be over? No, but soon. |
| 0:55.1 | I think so. |
| 0:56.3 | Okay, and with respect to... Very soon. |
| 0:57.1 | Look. |
| 0:58.3 | And he threatened aggressive action against Iran |
| 1:00.8 | if its leadership tried to restrict oil flows. |
| 1:04.3 | The theory, we're also focused on keeping energy and oil flowing to the world. |
| 1:10.0 | And I will not allow a terrorist regime to hold the world hostage, |
| 1:13.6 | an attempt to stop the globe's oil supply, and if Iran does anything to do that, |
| 1:18.6 | they'll get hit at a much, much harder level. |
| 1:21.6 | I will take out those targets that were easy. |
... |
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