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Buckeye Talk: Ohio State podcast by cleveland.com

Are Ohio State and Michigan destined for overtime in The Game in 2023?

Buckeye Talk: Ohio State podcast by cleveland.com

cleveland.com

Sports, Football

4.51.6K Ratings

🗓️ 28 June 2023

⏱️ 54 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Ohio State and Michigan have played only one overtime game -- the 2016 classic that sent the Buckeyes to the playoff. Could they be destined for their second such outcome in The Game in Ann Arbor on Nov. 25? Tyler Shoemaker, Buckeye Talk's resident oddsmaker, joins the show to discuss his preseason power rankings. That includes a razor-thin margin for the regular-season finale at the Big House. Tyler also discusses why Ohio State's offense remains so highly ranked despite many preseason questions, why the Buckeye defense is expected to be better and what his numbers say about the rest of the Big Ten Conference. While Tyler's numbers are meant to be compared to betting lines, what do they tell us about what we expect from the Buckeyes for reasons beyond the cold, hard numbers? Discussion topics include: • (1:30) Tyler explains the TSI and how he tweaked his system for 2023. • (6:00) What the TSI predicts for Ohio State • (7:45) Why the OSU-Michigan rankings caused Tyler to double-check his numbers • (9:00) Why Tyler's numbers still predict OSU to have the nation's best offense despite new QB, offensive line questions, etc. • (17:15) What TSI predicts for Ohio State's defense, and why • (23:30) How TSI accounts for teams like Michigan that outperform their recruiting rankings • (28:00) What TSI predicts for The Game against Michigan • (36:30) How Ohio State's strength of schedule affects its win-loss prediction • (43:00) How a Drew Allar breakout would affect Penn State relative to its expectations and other predictions around the Big Ten Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Hey, hey, where you been? But got talk is about to begin. Hey, hey, hey, come on in.

0:31.0

Welcome back to Buckeye Talk and welcome back to Buckeye Talk for Tyler Schumacher our first

0:37.0

2023 season edition with Tyler who you all know I hope from listening to betting the Buckeyes with he and Doug throughout the season, but he's been our

0:48.0

resident odds maker here on Buckeye Talk going on a few years now Tyler welcome back to the show.

0:55.0

Yeah, great great to be back first first time this this year I guess because the last show we did was right before the the

1:02.0

Peach Bowl New Year's Eve. So first time this year. So it's good to be back. All right. So yeah, it would even be first time this calendar year.

1:07.0

I was just thinking for the season, but yeah, that makes sense that we haven't haven't heard from you in a while, but we saw you out because you just dropped

1:16.0

as you do throughout the season and you become a must follow for I think a lot of fans of Ohio State who've gotten to know you, but you just dropped your

1:26.0

2023 rankings, your ratings however you want to call that I suppose I should defer to what you call them, but you actually this year called it the

1:37.0

index that the tissue index kind of has there been a change in what you're doing or some adjustment to what you're doing and if

1:45.0

you're doing so, what's different.

1:48.0

Yeah, so the first thing you said, so I did I did give my numbers a name where it's the tissue index TSI. It's just so much easier than constantly saying like, well, my

2:00.0

numbers think or my model says or it just it gets exhausting saying that over and over so having haven't TSI to just reference, you know, real real quick makes it makes it

2:09.0

in terms of differences. I did I am really excited about my ability or what I perceive to be my ability to quantify and reward and

2:23.0

penalize teams that really develop their talent well in teams that don't develop their talent well because a lot of times with these

2:30.0

preseason ratings, a lot of it, you know, so much of it is you're recruiting ranking in the talent you have on your team, but I really

2:40.0

spent a lot of time thinking about I need to figure out how I can reward, you know, the Illinois, the I was the Minnesota's those type of teams that don't

2:53.0

recruit at a super high level, but you know, constantly are winning seven eight games and and figure out how to quantify that and I think I've done a good

3:03.0

job of that this off season. We'll see how it works out, but I am excited about the numbers.

3:09.0

Interesting, so because I've always been sort of fascinated by that like guys like you, what sort of tweaks are you making without getting too far into the proprietary part of

3:19.0

this algorithm because it is what you use to put out your picks and things each week and I would definitely advise people to come back now that especially gambling is legal in Ohio if you can

3:30.0

partake in that on a recreational basis and then you're interested in it, then Tyler's a good guy to follow. I did very well in my NFL pool last year that was solely the before it was the TSI. I was just riding the TSI and it worked out well for me and my

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