Are Afghan nationals more likely to be convicted of sexual offences?

More or Less

BBC

Business, Mathematics, Science, News Commentary, News

4.6 • 3.5K Ratings

🗓️ 10 September 2025

⏱️ 29 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Tim Harford looks at some of the numbers in the news. This week:

Is it true that interest payments on the UK’s national debt are equivalent to £240 per month for everyone in the country?

Reform UK claim that Afghan migrants are 22 times more likely to be convicted of sex offences. Is that number correct?

We try to make sense of a claim that one in 10 women are being driven to leave work by their menopause symptoms.

And we investigate a claim comparing the speed of a snail and the war in Ukraine.

If you’ve seen a number you think we should look at, email the team: [email protected]

Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeill Producer: Nicholas Barrett Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

Transcript

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0:00.0	You're dead to me.
0:05.0	No, no, that's the name of our podcast. Sorry.
0:08.7	And we're back for a brand new series.
0:11.1	Not only is it British history, it was a quill drop.
0:15.1	With more fun and facts from history without taking it too seriously.
0:19.8	Empress Matilda, what is she going to do now?
0:21.7	She decides to take back some of the jewels with her. I'm taking these as well. I'm going to come back
0:27.3	for Tuscany one day as well. You're dead to me. Again, not you. Name of the show. Listen first on BBC
0:34.0	Sounds. Hello and welcome to a new series of more or less with me, Tim Harford,
0:39.5	the show that takes the um out of numbers.
0:43.4	Does that make sense?
0:44.4	Doesn't that just leave you with numbers?
0:46.8	Not to worry.
0:48.0	Let us press on with our usual elan.
0:51.0	This week we try to explain why everyone is suddenly so excited about the national debt.
0:56.7	We parse a claim about Afghan migrants being 22 times more likely to be convicted of sex
1:02.9	offences, or maybe it's 14 times, or, well, we'll get to it. We try to make sense of a claim that
1:08.9	women are being driven to leave work by their
1:11.2	menopause symptoms. But does that mean leave work or leave work? And we compare the Russian
1:17.7	army to various kinds of snail.
1:24.4	So, first, just how bad is our national debt?
1:30.3	Over the summer, there have been a lot of claims flying around about how much we're paying
	...

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