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TechCheck

Approaching a GenAI Plateau? 11/11/24

TechCheck

CNBC

Disruptors, Investing, Faang, Technology, Business, Management, Cnbc, Tech

4.856 Ratings

🗓️ 11 November 2024

⏱️ 8 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Traffic to ChatGPT is booming, now ranked the 8th most-visited website worldwide, according to Similarweb. But its incredible rise comes right as concerns in Silicon Valley grow over whether the advancement of AI models is slowing down due to the data wall.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Sam Altman tweeting that Chad GPT is now the eighth biggest website in the world, according to similar web.

0:06.7

The site's explosive growth comes right as questions grow over whether Gen A models can keep up their rapid pace of technical advancement.

0:13.9

Our Dear Dobos is digging into some of that today in today's tech check. Good morning, Dee.

0:18.0

Hey, Carl, I heard you guys talking about that earlier. And it's very much a conversation taking place in Silicon Valley right now.

0:23.8

And it could have major implications for investors and the AI hype cycle at large.

0:28.6

There's this question of whether the rapid gen AI advancements in recent years are showing signs of deceleration.

0:34.4

Open AI's upcoming advanced model, Orion, that could be a key signal.

0:38.3

The information reports that the increase in quality of Orion is less than the quality

0:42.8

jump between the last two flagship models, GBT3 to GBT4. In other words, GenAI

0:48.8

advancements may have peaked. Here was VC. Ben Horowitz on his latest A16Z podcast.

0:56.0

If you look at like the improvement from GPT 2.0 to GPT 3 to 3.5 and then compare that from like

1:04.9

3.5 to 4, you know, we've really slowed down in terms of the amount of improvement.

1:10.5

And the thing to note on that is the GPU increase was comparable.

1:15.6

So we're increasing GPUs at the same, like, rate, but we're not getting the intelligence

1:21.6

improvements at all out of it.

1:23.6

Another VC, Reid Hoffman. He made a similar point about decreasing gains on another podcast.

1:30.3

Why is this happening? Essentially because models are running out of data, which does beg the question.

1:36.0

Should investors be valuing AI companies the same way if that core assumption is changing?

1:41.5

Expensive heavy compute investment, that could turn into a push for

1:44.3

sustainable business models and applications. It could also drive changes in the AI hardware

1:49.3

market, which has just been booming, demand for high-end AI chips. That could shift towards

1:54.2

efficient, specialized, inference-optimized chips where Nvidia faces more competition. We talked about

...

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