Annie Duke on Poker, Probabilities, and How We Make Decisions
Conversations with Tyler
Conversations with Tyler
4.8 • 2.6K Ratings
🗓️ 1 July 2020
⏱️ 55 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
For Annie Duke, the poker table is a perfect laboratory to study human decision-making — including her own. "It really exposes you to the way that you're thinking," she says, "how hard it is to avoid decision traps, even when you're perfectly well aware that those decision traps exist. And how easy it is for like your mind to slip into those traps." She's spent a lot of time studying human cognition at the poker table and off it — her best-known academic article is about psycholinguistics and her forthcoming book is titled How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices.
Annie joined Tyler to explore how payoffs aren't always monetary, the benefits and costs of probabilistic thinking, the "magical thinking" behind why people buy fire insurance but usually don't get prenups, the psychology behind betting on shark migrations, how her most famous linguistics paper took on Steven Pinker, how public policy would change if only the top 500 poker players voted, why she wasn't surprised to lose Celebrity Apprentice to Joan Rivers, whether Trump has a tell, the number one trait of top poker players, and more.
Read a full transcript enhanced with helpful links, or watch the full video.
Recorded June 24th, 2020
Other ways to connect
- Follow us on Twitter and Instagram
- Follow Tyler on Twitter
- Follow Annie on Twitter
- Email us: cowenconvos@mercatus.gmu.edu
- Subscribe at our newsletter page to have the latest Conversations with Tyler news sent straight to your inbox.
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | Conversations with Tyler is produced by the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, |
| 0:08.4 | bridging the gap between academic ideas and real-world problems. |
| 0:12.5 | Learn more at mercatis.org. |
| 0:15.2 | And for more conversations, including videos, transcripts, and upcoming dates, visit |
| 0:20.4 | ConversationsWithT Tyler.com. |
| 0:27.7 | And how does one introduce Annie Duke? |
| 0:30.0 | I would say most of all she is a force of nature, a best-selling author in multiple books, |
| 0:35.9 | a very famous poker player, an expert in decision theory, and she has a new book coming out this |
| 0:42.1 | September called How to Decide, Simple Tools for Making Better Choices. |
| 0:47.8 | Annie, welcome. |
| 0:48.8 | Thank you for having me. |
| 0:50.5 | I'm super excited to dig in and get into this conversation. |
| 0:55.0 | Let me start with a simple question. |
| 0:57.2 | How can we spot situations when thinking probabilistically is likely to make our decisions |
| 1:02.6 | worse rather than better? |
| 1:04.5 | How can we spot situations when thinking probabilistically is likely to make our decisions |
| 1:09.1 | worse rather than better? |
| 1:12.3 | That is such an interesting question. |
| 1:14.3 | I mean, honestly, I would say that those situations would only be in some ways I'm not sure |
| 1:19.9 | that this means that you're not thinking probabilistically. |
| 1:22.3 | It's just what do you do with the information. |
| 1:24.8 | But there are certain times when thinking through what the probabilities are in terms |
... |
Please login to see the full transcript.
Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Conversations with Tyler, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.
Generated transcripts are the property of Conversations with Tyler and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.
Copyright © Tapesearch 2026.