Hello and welcome to a bonus Sunday edition of the Bullwark podcast.

I'm your host, Tim Miller.

We got the shock-seltzer Iowa poll last night, 47 to 44 among likely voters in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris in Iowa.

So obviously we had to have an emergency pod with the Queen herself, Jay Ann Seltzer,

President of the polling firm, Seltzer and Company.

She's best known for conducting the Iowa poll for the Des Moines Register.

Thanks for coming on the Bullwark podcast.

Thank you, Tim.

Good to be with you.

No tiara for the queen today.

I leave my tiaras and my crystal balls at home.

Okay.

Well, let's just start first with what happened to the poll.

I got to tell you, I looked at it, I looked at it three times before I realized that Kamala was

winning. I just saw 47, 44, and I was like, that's pretty good for the vice president, down

three. And then it took me about two minutes to, for it to like register that she was up three.

So anyway, I'm wondering just at the top level, what you saw is happening in the poll, and then we'll kind of go to the particulars.

I don't think anybody would look at the numbers and not be, you know, in a somewhat state of shock.

We started interviewing Monday night, so Tuesday morning I walked in.

My assistant was already crunching numbers, and she said, did you see the unweighted data?

I go, yeah, I'd like to see the weighted data. So we're always very cautious about embracing things too much.

I'm always telling my clients, don't get married to these numbers because they can change.

...