Welcome to Thoughts in the Market, I'm Andrew Sheetz, chief cross-asset strategist for

Morgan Stanley.

Along with my colleagues bring you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about trends

across the global investment landscape and how we put those ideas together.

It's Thursday, April 1st at 2pm in London.

As the popular children's rhyme goes, April showers bring may flowers.

But for financial markets, it's kind of the other way around.

In the last 30 years, April has been one of the best months of the entire year, while

May through September have generally seen lower, below average returns.

Today, I wanted to talk about this tendency of market returns to vary with the season,

what could explain April's difference from the months that come after, and how it could

apply this year.

Basing one's investment view on the tilt of the Earth's axis seems mildly archaic.

But seasonal patterns in returns do exist, and if applied both recently and back through

time.

The phrase, Selen May and Go Away is often linked to a much older saying among British merchants

and investors.

Selen May, Go Away, and don't come back until St. Ledger's Day, a British horse race that

took place in late September.

So why is April tended to be stronger and May through September worse?

There are a few things that may help explain the boost in April, from a new fiscal year

in Japan to the release of first quarter earnings.

...