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Thoughts on the Market

Andrew Sheets: The Fed’s Great Expectations Quandary

Thoughts on the Market

Morgan Stanley

Business, Alternatives, Equities, Macro, Markets, Strategy, Investing, Global, Economics, Fixed Income

4.81.4K Ratings

🗓️ 2 August 2019

⏱️ 4 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

On today's podcast, Markets met the Fed rate cut with a collective shrug. Could investor expectations make it harder for the Fed to succeed? Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets provides analysis.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross Asset

0:06.1

Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bring you a variety of

0:09.5

perspectives, I'll be talking about trends across the global

0:12.1

investment landscape and how we put those

0:13.8

different ideas together.

0:15.2

It's Friday, August 2nd at 2 p.m. in London.

0:18.3

On Wednesday, July 31st, the Federal Reserve reduced its target rate by 25 basis points.

0:23.6

It was the first rate cut for the Fed since December 2008,

0:27.2

and the first start to rate reductions since 2007.

0:31.1

Markets had been rising all year on the hope that Central Banks would ease policy by lowering

0:34.7

interest rates.

0:35.7

But when the rate cut finally came this week, something different happened.

0:39.1

Stocks fell.

0:40.0

The story of what could be driving this is important.

0:42.3

The dynamic between stock markets and Central Bank expectations wasn't the main reason

0:46.2

we downgraded global equities to underweight in early July, but they were a reason.

0:50.7

In addition to our worries about valuation, growth, and trade

0:53.6

uncertainty, we've had two specific concerns regarding central banks.

0:57.6

First, the expectations towards them from investors were very high, making it

1:02.4

by definition harder for them to be exceeded.

1:05.2

And second, in contrast to many others in the market, we are firm believers that the power of

1:09.2

Central Banks is more limited than appreciated.

...

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