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Thoughts on the Market

Andrew Sheets: Markets Shrug at “High” Inflation

Thoughts on the Market

Morgan Stanley

Strategy, Alternatives, Macro, Equities, Fixed Income, Investing, Global, Business, Markets, Economics

4.81.4K Ratings

🗓️ 11 June 2021

⏱️ 4 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

This month’s U.S. consumer price inflation data showed a 5% rise versus a year ago, yet markets seemed unconcerned. A look at why markets could be looking past rising inflation readings.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to Thoughts in the Market.

0:04.0

I'm Andrew Sheetz, Chief Cross-Asset Stragist for Morgan Stanley.

0:07.6

Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about trends

0:11.4

across the global investment landscape and how we put those ideas together.

0:15.2

It's Friday, June 11th at 2 p.m. in London.

0:19.4

The big event this week, or at least what seemed like the big event, was the monthly release

0:23.4

of US consumer price inflation.

0:25.5

There's a lot of focus on inflation at the moment, and after a surprisingly high reading

0:29.2

last month, yesterday's release has been circled on many investors' calendars for a while.

0:34.2

The number arrived, and it was a surprise.

0:36.7

Once again, inflation came in higher than expected, rising 5% versus year-to-year levels.

0:41.6

That's the highest rate of year-to-year change in the index since July of 2007.

0:46.6

But markets looked at this surprise and shrugged.

0:49.4

US bond yields actually fell, the opposite of what one would usually expect when inflation

0:53.8

is surprisingly high, and stocks rose, even though inflation is often painted as a threat

0:58.4

to equity markets.

0:59.7

So what's going on?

1:01.0

Spending too much time guessing a single day's reaction is a fool's errand.

1:04.5

But we do think there are some important factors to keep in mind, to both help explain

1:08.2

why the market may have been willing to look through yesterday's data, but also what

1:12.1

we need to keep an eye on going forward.

1:14.4

The first, and maybe most important dynamic, comes down to expectations.

...

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