Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.

I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross Asset Strategy for Morgan Stanley.

Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives,

I'll be talking about trends across the global investment landscape and how we put those ideas together.

It's Friday, June 19th at 2 p.m. in London.

Twice a year, Morgan Stanley's economists and strategists around the world come together

to reset, debate, and forecast what we think and of a global health emergency, a decline in economic activity, and a level of policy response that are all extreme by the standards of history.

Here is what we expect going forward.

The first question that needs to be addressed is do these extreme events that we're seeing at the moment

scramble our usual market indicators. Can historical analysis of what's happened during

prior recessions still apply given the scale of what's going on at the moment.

This is an important debate but we do think those old rules still apply.

Indeed we continue to think that this current cycle is much more normal than is appreciated.

Why is that?

Well first the conditions that existed at the start of this year shared many normal

late cycle characteristics that preceded other recessions.

Low unemployment, rising inflation, high market

valuations, low volatility, confident consumers, and an inverted yield curve just to name

a few. Secondly, the way the current market bottomed in March relative to the lows of economic data

was also quite normal and similar to prior recessions.

And third, maybe most importantly, our economists at Morgan Stanley think the post-recession recovery will look

relatively normal, with growth recovering to pre-recession levels about twice as fast as

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