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Thoughts on the Market

Andrew Sheets: A New Chapter for the United Kingdom

Thoughts on the Market

Morgan Stanley

Strategy, Alternatives, Macro, Equities, Fixed Income, Investing, Global, Business, Markets, Economics

4.81.4K Ratings

🗓️ 3 January 2020

⏱️ 3 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

On today's episode, For three and a half years, Brexit has been a source of uncertainty for the United Kingdom and its markets. Now, with some business uncertainty reduced, a new narrative may be emerging.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.

0:04.0

I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross Asset Strategy

0:06.0

for Morgan Stanley.

0:08.0

Along with my colleagues bring you a variety of perspectives,

0:10.0

I'll be talking about trends across the global investment landscape and how we put those

0:13.8

different ideas together.

0:15.1

It's Friday, January 3rd at 2 p.m. in London, a very happy new year.

0:20.1

For over three and a half years, the United Kingdom, where I'm recording this, has been associated with economic uncertainty and political intrigue.

0:27.0

In June of 2016, the country voted to leave the European Union, an entity that is both a political organization and the largest free trading region in the world.

0:35.6

But because there are many ways to leave such an organization, from a full break to a close relationship,

0:40.8

because this question divided those who wanted to leave both before and after the referendum,

0:45.3

and because about 48% of the country voted against leaving in the first place, the gears of UK politics

0:50.9

quickly ground to a halt.

0:53.0

Since the referendum in 2016, the UK has had two further elections and three different

0:58.0

prime ministers.

0:59.0

Multiple deadlines for Brexit have come and gone, often at what seemed like the last possible moment.

1:03.9

The uncertainty caused business investment to slump and interest from international investors

1:08.2

to Wayne.

1:09.2

Between the day of the referendum and the 1st of December of 2019, the 100 largest UK stocks underperformed their global peers by about

1:17.4

44% in dollar terms. But lately things have been changing. Elections in mid-December of 2019 delivered a stronger than expected majority for the current government.

1:27.5

Their larger majority suggests they'll have an easier time taking that action than before.

1:32.0

Why does that matter? After a long period without change

...

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