Welcome to Thoughts in the Market.

I'm Andrew Sheetz, Chief Cross-Asset Stragist from Oregon Stanley.

Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about trends

across the global investment landscape and how we put those ideas together.

It's Tuesday, July 20th at 3pm in London.

Stock prices and bond yields both fell sharply yesterday.

Big moves like this always demand an explanation, and a popular one appears to be that markets

are worried that the Delta variant will cause the economy to weaken.

We don't think this is quite right, and while in the very near term, this distinction

may not matter, in the long term, it does.

So why don't we think that a growth slowdown is the big story?

Well, there are a few reasons.

Strong retail sales last week means that our tracking numbers for US growth have actually

gone up.

The news flow on infrastructure remains in line with our baseline that more stimulus is

coming.

And while the Delta variant is serious, all indications suggest that vaccines are highly

effective at reducing hospitalizations, the main variable in determining whether broader

activity needs to be restricted.

Just as importantly, expressing worries over growth right now feels a bit like, in the

words of my grandmother, closing the barn door after the cows have gotten out.

US Treasury yields have already fallen from about 1.75% to less than 1.2%.

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