Welcome to Thoughts in the Market.

I'm Andrew Sheetz, Chief Cross-Asset Stragist for Morgan Stanley.

Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about trends

across the global investment landscape and how we put those ideas together.

It's Wednesday, April 28th at 4 p.m. in London.

The weather in London has been unseasonably good and combined with the easing of some local

restrictions has cracked the door to that most elusive of feelings, normality, where all

these people in my neighborhood were previously, I do not know, but they are out and they're

spending money.

Our economists forecast a strong rebound in UK GDP for the second quarter and when struggling

to find space in the pavement that feels about right.

The catch, however, is that I think more normality also pretends to a more difficult summer.

Some of that is fundamental, some of that's psychological, and some of that is a function

of what is now in the price.

Fundamentally, the big focus will be on inflation.

In the last 12 months, the question of whether it would materialize has been just that speculation.

But starting next month, we'll start to see it.

Our economists forecast the US core PCE inflation a key measure that the Fed focuses on will

hit about 2.5%.

And then the month after that, it will hit 2.5% again.

And then for the rest of the year, it should be 2% or higher.

Now, I don't think we're about to see runaway prices, but this will represent a significant

...