Welcome to Thoughts on the market.

I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross Asset Strategy for Morgan Stanley.

Along with my colleagues bring you a variety of perspectives,

I'll be talking about trends across the global investment landscape and how we put those

different ideas together.

It's Friday, December 13th at 2 p.m. in London.

I've spent most of my time over the last several weeks talking to investors about what we expect for the year

ahead.

And on this program you've heard myself, Mike Wilson, Mike Zesus, and others talking about those expectations.

My conversations, however, there's a lot of focus on what a realistically better or worse scenario

could look like.

And that's what I'd like to focus on today.

Having previously discussed what could make 2020 worse than we expect, today I'm going to talk

about what could make it better. A better than expected

20 would start with a better than expected outcome for US-China trade. The poll case would be

that the tariffs are actually rolled back and that a larger breakthrough on key issues becomes apparent.

We think that such a breakthrough isn't likely enough to make it our central scenario,

but given all the twists and turns of the trade saga, it's possible enough to make it a realistic bulkcase.

A larger de-escalation for trade tensions would lead our economists to boost their estimates for

global growth.

The most optimistic case for 2020 could also include more fiscal easing from Europe, China, and even Japan than we currently assume.

Together, these forces could lead to a more material reflationary impulse in the global economy. The most direct positive impact of such an impulse

...