This is Intelligence Matters, with former acting director of the CIA, Michael Morrell.

Brought to you by Lockheed Martin.

Your mission is ours.

Why has the Middle East been such a mess for so long?

Well, there are lots of reasons why the region is unstable.

The most important, which is that the country themselves are not natural countries in terms

of aligning towards that neck tribal religious line so that they have a lot of internal

incohesion to them.

Almost all of these countries are fundamentally non-democratic, which in the short term sometimes

might have some advantages when it comes to stability, but over the longer term is inherently

unstable.

If I was going to put my finger on the single most important factor that explains the largest

number of actions that are taking place in the region today, it is the widespread perception

of American withdrawal, or diplomatic presence is second to none, our intelligence efforts,

our economic engagement.

But this perception remains, and the perception is not without merit.

And if you're a country in the region whose security architecture has depended for many

decades on the United States, are you going to depend on that in the immediate future?

Of course, but looking ahead five years, ten years, twenty years, these countries are

not going to bet the existence of their country on the United States staying the course as

it has.

I'm David Pogue from CBS Sunday Morning.

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