America Will Lose Any Trade War – Ep. 224
The Peter Schiff Show Podcast
Peter Schiff
4.6 • 5.9K Ratings
🗓️ 28 January 2017
⏱️ 36 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
* Earlier this morning we got the first look at Q4 GDP
* As I suggested on the last podcast, in fact as I have been saying all along
* We did see a sharp decline from the Q3 3.5% GDP
* The consensus was for a 2.2% estimate for growth in Q4
* And we came in at 1.9%
* Quite a way below estimates and psychologically below the 2% number
* Part of the reason was a big drop in exports
* I talked about this last quarter
* One of the reasons we got that 3.5% jump in Q3 GDP
* Was the big surge in soybean exports, because of a drought overseas
* Which created a temporary increase for U.S. beans
* The rest of it was an inventory build, which I still think needs to be worked off
* In fact, I think we're going to work off a lot of it in the first quarter of this year
* That's the first estimate, and, who knows, they may downward revise it the next time they give us the numbers
* If you now take the first 3 quarters of GDP growth, and use the first estimate for Q4
* For the entire year of 2016 GDP grew at just 1.6%
* That is the lowest number since 2009, tied with 2011, at 1.6% also
* If you remember 2011 GDP growth was so weak that they launched QE3 for 2012
* So they ended QE2, the economy started rolling over
* And when they got that 1.6% GDP for the entire year
* The Fed very quickly came out and launched QE3 the following year to goose the GDP back up
* What are they doing now? Not only is the Fed not preparing to launch another round of QE
* They are tightening monetary policy
* They're saying, "We're going to raise interest rates 3 times, even though GDP is as low as it has been for the entire "recovery'
* Even though the economy is decelerating, we are going to sedate it with rate hikes
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | The Peter Shifchow. |
| 0:09.2 | Well earlier this morning we got the first look at fourth quarter GDP and as I suggested |
| 0:16.0 | on the last podcast and in fact as I've been saying all along we did see a sharp decline |
| 0:21.1 | from the 3.5% that we got in the third quarter. |
| 0:25.0 | The consensus was for a 2.2% estimate for growth in the fourth quarter and we came in |
| 0:31.2 | at 1.9 so quite a ways below estimates and psychologically below that 2% number. |
| 0:38.6 | You know part of the reason was a big drop in exports and I talked about this last quarter |
| 0:43.8 | one of the reasons we got that 3.5% jump in Q3 GDP was the big surge in soybean exports |
| 0:51.2 | and that was because of a drought I guess overseas which increased demand temporarily |
| 0:55.6 | for us beans. |
| 0:56.9 | We got the export more and that was a big part of the bump. |
| 0:59.8 | The rest of it was the inventory build which I still think needs to be worked off. |
| 1:04.0 | In fact I think we're going to work off a lot of it in the first quarter of this year |
| 1:09.1 | but a lot of those temporary factors going away and we only got 1.9% and again that's |
| 1:14.8 | the first estimate who knows they may downwindly revise it the next time they give us the numbers |
| 1:20.6 | but if you now take the first 3 quarters of GDP growth and use the first estimate for |
| 1:26.8 | Q4 for the entire year 2016 GDP grew at just 1.6 that is really the slowest rate of growth |
| 1:39.1 | of the Obama presidency other than the first year 2009 which was a recession since then |
| 1:46.4 | 1.6% is the slowest rate of growth. |
| 1:48.9 | Now we did also grow at 1.6% in 2011 so we tied that number so it's not the lowest it's |
| 1:56.6 | tied for the lowest but it's certainly the lowest since 2011 and 2011 and now 2016 are |
| 2:04.5 | the lowest of the entire so-called phony recovery but if you remember 2011 GDP growth was so |
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