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Hidden Forces

America's Gamble: Regime Change, Retreat, or State Collapse in Iran | Hamidreza Azizi

Hidden Forces

Demetri Kofinas

Business, Government

4.8 • 1.6K Ratings

🗓️ 18 March 2026

⏱️ 56 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

In Episode 469 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Hamidreza Azizi — Iranian scholar, visiting fellow at the German Institute for International Security Affairs, nonresident fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, and author of the forthcoming The Axis of Resistance: Iran, Israel, and the Struggle for the Middle East — about how the US and Israeli military campaign against Iran has evolved over its first three weeks, and what the conflict's trajectory reveals about the competing strategic objectives driving it.

The conversation opens with an assessment of how the war has unfolded since its start, examining where US and Israeli objectives align, where they diverge, and what those divergences mean for the conflict's direction. Azizi and Kofinas discuss the significance of the targeted killing of Ali Larijani — secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council — as part of a broader campaign to decapitate the Islamic Republic's leadership structure, and what the systematic elimination of senior Iranian officials means for Tehran's ability to manage both the military and political dimensions of the war simultaneously.

The conversation then turns to the nuclear question — specifically whether the war has made a nuclear-armed Iran more likely rather than less — before examining the divergent responses of the Gulf states and the key variables Azizi believes are most important for understanding where this conflict goes from here.

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Episode Recorded on 03/17/2026

Transcript

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0:00.0

What's up, everybody? My name is Demetri Kaffinus, and you're listening to Hidden Forces,

0:06.1

a podcast that inspires investors, entrepreneurs and everyday citizens, to challenge consensus

0:12.2

narratives, and learn how to think critically about the systems of power shaping our world.

0:17.8

My guest in this episode of Hidden Forces is Hamidreza Azizi, an Iranian scholar

0:22.4

based in Europe with a PhD in Religious Studies from the University of Tehran, who has lectured

0:27.8

at several Iranian universities and serves as a visiting fellow at the German Institute for

0:32.8

International Security Affairs and as a non-resident fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs in Doha.

0:39.0

He is also the author of a forthcoming book titled The Axis of Resistance, Iran, Israel,

0:44.8

and the struggle for the Middle East. This is the third episode in an ongoing series of conversations

0:50.3

I've been hosting to track the U.S. and Israeli military campaign against Iran as it

0:55.3

unfolds in real time. In this conversation, Hamidreza and I discuss how the war has evolved

1:00.7

over the first three weeks, examining the competing objectives driving U.S. and Israeli strategy,

1:06.7

where those objectives may be incompatible, and what the continued assassinations of large

1:11.4

swaths of the Iranian leadership structure, including the most recent killing of Ali al-Aryjani,

1:16.9

the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, means for the Islamic Republic's ability

1:22.2

to manage both the military and political dimensions of the conflict. We also discuss the nuclear question, specifically whether the war has now made a nuclear

1:31.4

armed Iran more likely rather than less, the divergent positions of the Gulf states,

1:36.6

and what Hamidreza sees as the key variables to watch if you want to understand where

1:41.3

this conflict goes from here.

1:43.3

If you want access to the transcripts and intelligence reports for this and other episodes,

1:48.3

which includes summary sections with key takeaways, you can access those by subscribing

1:52.5

to our super nerd tier at Hidden Forces.io slash subscribe, where you can also join in on the

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